$68,000 is right in front of us, and the unrealized profit on my short has hit a new high—let’s start with the numbers, then get to the conclusion.
At 13:00, $BTC was about $68,607, down 6.9% over 24 hours; $ETH was about $1,925, down 6.0% over 24 hours (CoinGecko, prices checked live at 13:00 Beijing time). The 12:00 four-hour candle closed at about $68,891, marking the 26th consecutive close below $75,000. The 24-hour ranges were BTC $68,591–$73,653 and ETH $1,925–$2,049. Both are at their lows, and still falling.
Short position update #43: I opened the short at $75,800–$76,100 on Nov. 7 at 13:00, with a midpoint entry of $75,950. At the current price of $68,607, the price is down 9.67%, meaning the unrealized profit on the remaining half is about +967% based on 100x margin. At 11:00 it was still +752%; in two hours, it grew by another 215 percentage points. The added short (opened at $74,700–$75,000 on Nov. 9 at 13:00, midpoint entry $74,850) is up about +834% (it was +616% at 11:00). The first target, $73,200, was already banked on that half in the early hours of Nov. 11 (original position +362%, added short +220%). Honestly, this trade has made a lot of money, but it hasn’t reached its target yet, so there’s no need to celebrate just yet.
Why is it still falling? Liquidations are pushing prices down: more than $1.4 billion in liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours (CoinGlass, via CryptoPotato), including about $742 million in BTC and $250 million in ETH. On Hyperliquid, 24 addresses each suffered liquidations exceeding $1 million—all were long positions (Lookonchain); three long positions worth over $10 million were liquidated within five minutes. On-chain activity is also cooling: the CryptoQuant bull market score fell from 90 on Oct. 13 to 0; apparent demand over 30 days contracted by 284,000 BTC; and stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion over 30 days (Coinotag). Technically, the 200-week EMA, at about $69,000, has also been breached. A break below this level points to about $65,700 (Coinotag). RSI is around 27.5, deep in oversold territory (Coinotag)—but oversold is not a buy-the-dip signal; it’s a reminder not to chase shorts at this level.
The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding the remaining half, with a second target at $68,000—only about $600 below the current price. If it gets there, I’ll close the rest as planned and won’t get greedy. There’s also a post-breakdown target around $65,700 below $68,000, but that’s for the next trade; I won’t chase this one. The rule not to chase shorts if price breaks below $71,500 and fails to recover by the four-hour close remains in effect; no adding to the position today. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 would still be an area to add to the short. If the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at $73,125, or a four-hour candle closes above $76,250, I’ll admit I was wrong and exit. The stop-loss above $77,500 remains unchanged. With 100x leverage, I’m putting only a very small portion of my total capital at risk. Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. October PPI is due (forecast: +6.6% year over year, +0.4% month over month, and +0.3% month over month for core PPI). Also, 33,902 BTC options expire, with a max pain price of $77,000. I won’t trade for an hour before or after the data.
Sanctum is newly trending after gaining 148% in one day. Small caps are just a temperature gauge—no touching them. ZEC is down 8.8% and remains below $1,000.
Could $68,000 arrive today, or will we have to wait until after tonight’s PPI? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: checked live on CoinGecko at 13:00 Beijing time on Nov. 13; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
At 13:00, $BTC was about $68,607, down 6.9% over 24 hours; $ETH was about $1,925, down 6.0% over 24 hours (CoinGecko, prices checked live at 13:00 Beijing time). The 12:00 four-hour candle closed at about $68,891, marking the 26th consecutive close below $75,000. The 24-hour ranges were BTC $68,591–$73,653 and ETH $1,925–$2,049. Both are at their lows, and still falling.
Short position update #43: I opened the short at $75,800–$76,100 on Nov. 7 at 13:00, with a midpoint entry of $75,950. At the current price of $68,607, the price is down 9.67%, meaning the unrealized profit on the remaining half is about +967% based on 100x margin. At 11:00 it was still +752%; in two hours, it grew by another 215 percentage points. The added short (opened at $74,700–$75,000 on Nov. 9 at 13:00, midpoint entry $74,850) is up about +834% (it was +616% at 11:00). The first target, $73,200, was already banked on that half in the early hours of Nov. 11 (original position +362%, added short +220%). Honestly, this trade has made a lot of money, but it hasn’t reached its target yet, so there’s no need to celebrate just yet.
Why is it still falling? Liquidations are pushing prices down: more than $1.4 billion in liquidations across the market over the past 24 hours (CoinGlass, via CryptoPotato), including about $742 million in BTC and $250 million in ETH. On Hyperliquid, 24 addresses each suffered liquidations exceeding $1 million—all were long positions (Lookonchain); three long positions worth over $10 million were liquidated within five minutes. On-chain activity is also cooling: the CryptoQuant bull market score fell from 90 on Oct. 13 to 0; apparent demand over 30 days contracted by 284,000 BTC; and stablecoin supply shrank by $14.2 billion over 30 days (Coinotag). Technically, the 200-week EMA, at about $69,000, has also been breached. A break below this level points to about $65,700 (Coinotag). RSI is around 27.5, deep in oversold territory (Coinotag)—but oversold is not a buy-the-dip signal; it’s a reminder not to chase shorts at this level.
The plan hasn’t changed: keep holding the remaining half, with a second target at $68,000—only about $600 below the current price. If it gets there, I’ll close the rest as planned and won’t get greedy. There’s also a post-breakdown target around $65,700 below $68,000, but that’s for the next trade; I won’t chase this one. The rule not to chase shorts if price breaks below $71,500 and fails to recover by the four-hour close remains in effect; no adding to the position today. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 would still be an area to add to the short. If the daily candle closes back above the 200-day moving average at $73,125, or a four-hour candle closes above $76,250, I’ll admit I was wrong and exit. The stop-loss above $77,500 remains unchanged. With 100x leverage, I’m putting only a very small portion of my total capital at risk. Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. October PPI is due (forecast: +6.6% year over year, +0.4% month over month, and +0.3% month over month for core PPI). Also, 33,902 BTC options expire, with a max pain price of $77,000. I won’t trade for an hour before or after the data.
Sanctum is newly trending after gaining 148% in one day. Small caps are just a temperature gauge—no touching them. ZEC is down 8.8% and remains below $1,000.
Could $68,000 arrive today, or will we have to wait until after tonight’s PPI? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: checked live on CoinGecko at 13:00 Beijing time on Nov. 13; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
