mempool.space currently estimates that Bitcoin difficulty will decrease by about 7.79% this adjustment. The current difficulty is 148.36T; the previous adjustment was +5.54%, and this round is about 90% complete, with roughly 200 blocks remaining. The adjustment is estimated to occur around 02:50 Moscow time on November 14. Some reports say this would be the largest decrease since June, but the adjustment on June 14 saw a decrease of about 10.09%, which this estimate does not exceed.
The estimate changes as blocks are mined; the actual result at adjustment block 975,744 will be the deciding figure. Difficulty adjusts automatically every 2016 blocks. This does not mean mining companies are already selling their coins, nor does it prove that hashrate has permanently left. The claim that miners are shutting down and switching to AI mining is speculation, not fact.
What this means for you: treat the estimate as a figure that has not yet been finalized. Price volatility remains a risk; this is not investment advice. If the actual adjustment is significantly smaller than estimated, the “big drop” narrative will weaken. If blocks continue to come in slowly, the estimate may change again. Are you more interested in the final percentage change, or whether miners are leaving?
$BTC #MiningDifficulty
The estimate changes as blocks are mined; the actual result at adjustment block 975,744 will be the deciding figure. Difficulty adjusts automatically every 2016 blocks. This does not mean mining companies are already selling their coins, nor does it prove that hashrate has permanently left. The claim that miners are shutting down and switching to AI mining is speculation, not fact.
What this means for you: treat the estimate as a figure that has not yet been finalized. Price volatility remains a risk; this is not investment advice. If the actual adjustment is significantly smaller than estimated, the “big drop” narrative will weaken. If blocks continue to come in slowly, the estimate may change again. Are you more interested in the final percentage change, or whether miners are leaving?
$BTC #MiningDifficulty