$AAPLB $QCOM The market’s mainstream reaction is that the CEO’s rare statement that he is “very confident,” together with the three-year goal of tripling revenue from $5B to $15B, has sent bullish sentiment soaring. Investors believe QCOM is finally about to get a slice of the AI data center market. But I think this is precisely when expectations are most vulnerable: the $15B target means going from a near-zero base to a scale comparable to QTL’s current business in just three years. In the server CPU space, Qualcomm faces a three-front challenge from NVDA’s Grace, AMD’s EPYC, and custom ARM chips. Qualcomm’s previous data center attempt, Centriq in 2018, ended with layoffs and an exit from the market. More importantly, today’s macro backdrop is that the spread between long-term bond yields and stock earnings yields has widened to its largest since 2009—this was the very indicator Buffett used to warn about US stocks in 1999. When discount rates rise, valuations are most squeezed for stories about “delivering three years from now.” If implied volatility on QCOM options falls rather than rises ahead of earnings, that would suggest bullish positioning is already crowded. What do you think? Feel free to share differing views in the comments.