$BARD The four-hour high was 0.1503, 10.4% above the previous post’s high of 0.1361, and it also broke through 0.143, mentioned two posts ago. It closed at 0.1266, 15.8% below the high, down 1.71% for the candle, while up 47.83% over 24 hours.
The derivatives market didn’t keep up with this new high; instead, it fell further behind. The funding rate widened from -0.74% in the previous post to -1.08%. The mark price’s discount to spot—0.1227 versus 0.1261—also widened from 1.6% to 2.7%. Spot pushed the price higher, while derivatives moved even further away.
Volume kept up this time: four-hour trading volume was 29.2 million tokens, up 59.7% from 18.28 million on the previous candle. The 24-hour trading volume was also 15.88 million USDT, 34.3% more than the 11.82 million in the previous post. This wasn’t a thin-volume spike. But the price swept both sides: the low of 0.1163 also broke the previous post’s 0.1174 low by 0.9%, before the close rebounded to 0.1266.
I don’t read this candle as confirmation of a breakout, just as a rejected surge. Only a close above 0.1361 that holds there would justify saying that level has truly been taken. If 0.1163 breaks again, this entire 29.2% range flips to the downside. I’ll leave room for the opposite scenario too: the final hour alone gained +3.01%, and that same hour could give it all back.
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The derivatives market didn’t keep up with this new high; instead, it fell further behind. The funding rate widened from -0.74% in the previous post to -1.08%. The mark price’s discount to spot—0.1227 versus 0.1261—also widened from 1.6% to 2.7%. Spot pushed the price higher, while derivatives moved even further away.
Volume kept up this time: four-hour trading volume was 29.2 million tokens, up 59.7% from 18.28 million on the previous candle. The 24-hour trading volume was also 15.88 million USDT, 34.3% more than the 11.82 million in the previous post. This wasn’t a thin-volume spike. But the price swept both sides: the low of 0.1163 also broke the previous post’s 0.1174 low by 0.9%, before the close rebounded to 0.1266.
I don’t read this candle as confirmation of a breakout, just as a rejected surge. Only a close above 0.1361 that holds there would justify saying that level has truly been taken. If 0.1163 breaks again, this entire 29.2% range flips to the downside. I’ll leave room for the opposite scenario too: the final hour alone gained +3.01%, and that same hour could give it all back.
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