Gold's sitting right on the line — $3,850 is the level. Spot hit 3,852 today, lowest since October 2025, took out the Oct 30 low clean.
Dollar's near a 19-month high and the 10-year's at 5.10%. That's the pressure. PPI drops at 8:30 tomorrow — could be the catalyst either way.
Here's the setup:
Hold 3,850 → first target 3,900, then 3,944. That's the bounce play.
Lose 3,850 → 3,900 flips resistance. Next stops are 3,800, then the old breakout at 3,500. That's a full retest of structure.
This is a clear line. Either gold holds here and reclaims, or it's a deeper flush. Watch PPI and how dollar/yields react. I'm watching 3,850 like a hawk — lose it and I'm sidelined until 3,800.
$GLD $GDX $SPY
Dollar's near a 19-month high and the 10-year's at 5.10%. That's the pressure. PPI drops at 8:30 tomorrow — could be the catalyst either way.
Here's the setup:
Hold 3,850 → first target 3,900, then 3,944. That's the bounce play.
Lose 3,850 → 3,900 flips resistance. Next stops are 3,800, then the old breakout at 3,500. That's a full retest of structure.
This is a clear line. Either gold holds here and reclaims, or it's a deeper flush. Watch PPI and how dollar/yields react. I'm watching 3,850 like a hawk — lose it and I'm sidelined until 3,800.
$GLD $GDX $SPY