$PLAY has retraced about 28% from the daily high, while open interest is still around 520 million contracts—none have been closed—and account longs remain around 68%. The bearish thesis is still intact, but chasing shorts here has become less attractive.
Facts: Volume-driven rise began at 03:00. At 07:00, about 13.94 million U in a single hour pushed the price to a daily high of 0.01121. At 08:00, about 11.22 million U drove it straight back down to 0.00819. The 09:00–10:00 rebound peaked at 0.00929 but failed to hold. From 11:20 to 11:30, about 3.63 million U pushed it down to 0.0074 before it recovered; it is now around 0.0080, still up about 24% over 24 hours, with roughly 67 million U in trading volume. Open interest rose from about 432 million contracts at 03:00 to about 520 million at 08:00, and remains around 520 million after two sell-offs. Account longs are about 68%, while large traders' positions are about 54% long. The funding rate is currently about +0.017%, after peaking at +0.087% yesterday—longs have been paying all along.
Assessment: Longs haven't been flushed out, so there's still fuel for another sell-off. But the price is already nearly 30% below its high, and the dip to 0.0074 was bought back. Chasing shorts here means positioning yourself right above support.
Confirmation of weakness: A high-volume break below 0.0074, with open interest starting to decline.
Invalidation: A high-volume move back above 0.00929 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Beware of a short squeeze.
Would you wait to see what happens near a rebound to 0.0093, or wait for a break below 0.0074?
#PLAY回吐两成八 #Open interest hasn't declined
Facts: Volume-driven rise began at 03:00. At 07:00, about 13.94 million U in a single hour pushed the price to a daily high of 0.01121. At 08:00, about 11.22 million U drove it straight back down to 0.00819. The 09:00–10:00 rebound peaked at 0.00929 but failed to hold. From 11:20 to 11:30, about 3.63 million U pushed it down to 0.0074 before it recovered; it is now around 0.0080, still up about 24% over 24 hours, with roughly 67 million U in trading volume. Open interest rose from about 432 million contracts at 03:00 to about 520 million at 08:00, and remains around 520 million after two sell-offs. Account longs are about 68%, while large traders' positions are about 54% long. The funding rate is currently about +0.017%, after peaking at +0.087% yesterday—longs have been paying all along.
Assessment: Longs haven't been flushed out, so there's still fuel for another sell-off. But the price is already nearly 30% below its high, and the dip to 0.0074 was bought back. Chasing shorts here means positioning yourself right above support.
Confirmation of weakness: A high-volume break below 0.0074, with open interest starting to decline.
Invalidation: A high-volume move back above 0.00929 would invalidate the bearish thesis. Beware of a short squeeze.
Would you wait to see what happens near a rebound to 0.0093, or wait for a break below 0.0074?
#PLAY回吐两成八 #Open interest hasn't declined
