THE SENTIMENT AT $71k ( #BTC ) IS WORSE THAN AT $60k!
(PART 1/5)
Today we lost an extremely important support level in BTC, $74.3K, and then the chart started looking pretty ugly. (I’m going to ignore all of today’s news and focus only on price.)
The drop below $74k puts $66K / $65K on the table, but let’s pay attention to the price before that—to be exact, $69.5K, where the EMA200 (S) is. This EMA200 level is where we need to hold for the next 2 days, so we don’t lose strength in the altcoins that have been holding up very well until NOW.
It’s obvious that the price is being artificially pushed down by some EXCHANGES, right? This sounds pretty bad to say publicly, but maybe it’s time we talked about it publicly. As prices are forced down, several leveraged liquidations are being triggered.
Look at the 4h RSI right now: it’s at 19.64, a level it only reached when BITCOIN was at $59K. And overall market sentiment is even WORSE than when we were at $58k.
Although we’re seeing prices pushed down by those who shouldn’t be interfering with prices, the funding structure remains intact, and the forward curve shows that investors are still paying a premium to maintain exposure over time. Therefore, the derivatives market hasn’t followed spot with the same stress. This explains why we aren’t seeing major LONG liquidations, although we have seen some smaller ones.
When the price falls but the futures curve remains intact, the likelihood of structural panic becomes increasingly low, so I see no reason to panic here.
It’s much more likely that BIG buyers will show up around this EMA region than that we’ll make new lows. Of course, those who didn’t get in earlier, at $58K, will start saying again that they were right about $40K, but once again, they’ll be left behind.
The funniest thing here is that the bottom always seems so obvious in RETROSPECT...
(PART 1/5)
Today we lost an extremely important support level in BTC, $74.3K, and then the chart started looking pretty ugly. (I’m going to ignore all of today’s news and focus only on price.)
The drop below $74k puts $66K / $65K on the table, but let’s pay attention to the price before that—to be exact, $69.5K, where the EMA200 (S) is. This EMA200 level is where we need to hold for the next 2 days, so we don’t lose strength in the altcoins that have been holding up very well until NOW.
It’s obvious that the price is being artificially pushed down by some EXCHANGES, right? This sounds pretty bad to say publicly, but maybe it’s time we talked about it publicly. As prices are forced down, several leveraged liquidations are being triggered.
Look at the 4h RSI right now: it’s at 19.64, a level it only reached when BITCOIN was at $59K. And overall market sentiment is even WORSE than when we were at $58k.
Although we’re seeing prices pushed down by those who shouldn’t be interfering with prices, the funding structure remains intact, and the forward curve shows that investors are still paying a premium to maintain exposure over time. Therefore, the derivatives market hasn’t followed spot with the same stress. This explains why we aren’t seeing major LONG liquidations, although we have seen some smaller ones.
When the price falls but the futures curve remains intact, the likelihood of structural panic becomes increasingly low, so I see no reason to panic here.
It’s much more likely that BIG buyers will show up around this EMA region than that we’ll make new lows. Of course, those who didn’t get in earlier, at $58K, will start saying again that they were right about $40K, but once again, they’ll be left behind.
The funniest thing here is that the bottom always seems so obvious in RETROSPECT...
