November 13 Prediction Market Daily | Nvidia’s Successor and AI Release Windows
Nvidia: The contract for the next CEO saw about $870,000 in first-day trading. Ian Buck leads at 30.8%, while the Rene Haas option fell 34.5 percentage points in a day. The market has about two years until its deadline. Another contract combines Jensen Huang leaving by the end of 2026 with Nvidia’s market cap exceeding $4 trillion in a single option, priced at 59%. The contract has about $39,000 in liquidity.
AI: In the contract for the GPT Astra 6.1+ release window, November 16–22 is at 65.5%, while the November 23–29 option fell 18.7 percentage points in a day. In another contract priced by specific date, November 19 leads at 28.8%, while the November 16 option fell 26.7 percentage points. The two markets saw about $13,000 and $14,000 in 24-hour trading volume, respectively.
Macro: The contract for UK full-year GDP growth in 2026 coming in between 1% and 2% rose to 92.8%, up 4.8 percentage points. Trading volume increased 3.7-fold, with about $2,000 traded in 24 hours.
Elections: In the Ljubljana mayoral election contract, Zoran Janković leads at 71.7%, while the Luka Mesec option fell 14.3 percentage points. In the contract for the 2028 US Democratic presidential nomination, Jon Ossoff leads at 27.8%, while the Gavin Newsom option fell 0.7 percentage points. In the contract for the winner of the presidential election, Ossoff leads at 19.2%, while the JD Vance option fell 4.9 percentage points.
Nvidia: The contract for the next CEO saw about $870,000 in first-day trading. Ian Buck leads at 30.8%, while the Rene Haas option fell 34.5 percentage points in a day. The market has about two years until its deadline. Another contract combines Jensen Huang leaving by the end of 2026 with Nvidia’s market cap exceeding $4 trillion in a single option, priced at 59%. The contract has about $39,000 in liquidity.
AI: In the contract for the GPT Astra 6.1+ release window, November 16–22 is at 65.5%, while the November 23–29 option fell 18.7 percentage points in a day. In another contract priced by specific date, November 19 leads at 28.8%, while the November 16 option fell 26.7 percentage points. The two markets saw about $13,000 and $14,000 in 24-hour trading volume, respectively.
Macro: The contract for UK full-year GDP growth in 2026 coming in between 1% and 2% rose to 92.8%, up 4.8 percentage points. Trading volume increased 3.7-fold, with about $2,000 traded in 24 hours.
Elections: In the Ljubljana mayoral election contract, Zoran Janković leads at 71.7%, while the Luka Mesec option fell 14.3 percentage points. In the contract for the 2028 US Democratic presidential nomination, Jon Ossoff leads at 27.8%, while the Gavin Newsom option fell 0.7 percentage points. In the contract for the winner of the presidential election, Ossoff leads at 19.2%, while the JD Vance option fell 4.9 percentage points.