70,000 was finally touched — BTC briefly broke below to 69,860 this morning, then immediately bounced back above 70,200.
Context: This morning, the 09:45 WIB 15-minute candle saw BTC touch 69,860 — its lowest level since August — before closing at 70,295. ETH also swept 2,000 (low 1,973.7, close 1,993), and SOL fell to 79.57. This happened during the Asian session, well before tonight’s US PPI release (20:30 WIB). I don’t think this is a reversal yet — 4H closes are still declining consecutively (72,930 → 71,680 → 71,663 → 71,423) — but there’s no confirmed breakdown either: there hasn’t been a 4H close below 70,000, and the bounce from 69,860 came quickly. The underlying pressure is real: US spot BTC ETFs saw outflows of around $1.44 billion over five sessions, and 24-hour liquidations totaled around $680 million, mostly from long positions.
Bullish scenario: 4H close back above 71,079 — this sweep turns out to be a bear trap, opening the way to 71,680 and then 72,194.
Bearish scenario: 4H close below 70,000 — the sweep becomes a genuine breakdown, with the next target at 69,000, then 66,500, a level traders have mentioned.
My conclusion: I’m waiting for the 11:00 WIB 4H close. As long as there’s no close below 70,000, this is still a sweep — but the market has already shown its hand: buyers aren’t yet willing to defend 70,000 with conviction.
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
What do you think: is this sweep below 70,000 a trap for shorts, or a warm-up before a genuine breakdown?
#Bitcoin #AnalisisCrypto $BTC $ETH $SOL
Context: This morning, the 09:45 WIB 15-minute candle saw BTC touch 69,860 — its lowest level since August — before closing at 70,295. ETH also swept 2,000 (low 1,973.7, close 1,993), and SOL fell to 79.57. This happened during the Asian session, well before tonight’s US PPI release (20:30 WIB). I don’t think this is a reversal yet — 4H closes are still declining consecutively (72,930 → 71,680 → 71,663 → 71,423) — but there’s no confirmed breakdown either: there hasn’t been a 4H close below 70,000, and the bounce from 69,860 came quickly. The underlying pressure is real: US spot BTC ETFs saw outflows of around $1.44 billion over five sessions, and 24-hour liquidations totaled around $680 million, mostly from long positions.
Bullish scenario: 4H close back above 71,079 — this sweep turns out to be a bear trap, opening the way to 71,680 and then 72,194.
Bearish scenario: 4H close below 70,000 — the sweep becomes a genuine breakdown, with the next target at 69,000, then 66,500, a level traders have mentioned.
My conclusion: I’m waiting for the 11:00 WIB 4H close. As long as there’s no close below 70,000, this is still a sweep — but the market has already shown its hand: buyers aren’t yet willing to defend 70,000 with conviction.
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
What do you think: is this sweep below 70,000 a trap for shorts, or a warm-up before a genuine breakdown?
#Bitcoin #AnalisisCrypto $BTC $ETH $SOL