BTC is currently at 71,324, down 43.47% from its peak of 126,164.
I didn't pull these numbers out of thin air. I analyzed 2,552 daily candles from 2019-11-18 to the present and filtered for 20 historical signals matching four conditions: the close fell below the MA200, RSI was between 28 and 38, price was near the 30-day low, and the MACD histogram was negative. Then I analyzed what actually happened after these signals.
Three key takeaways:
1: This isn't the bottom yet, but it's not far off
Among 20 samples, the median maximum decline was 5.1% within 7 days and 6.5% within 14 days. Historically, when the same pattern appeared, prices were likely to drop another 5–6.5% before rebounding.
2: This isn't a good level to chase shorts
The current price is only 0.17% above the 24-hour low of 71,200. Shorting at this distance puts you right in the crosshairs of a stop-hunt wick. Meanwhile, the probability of a rise within 7 days is 60%.
3: Positioning is determined by the market structure
Trading volume distribution over the past 365 days: 72,000–74,000 accounts for only 4.30%—a vacuum zone; 76,000–78,000 accounts for 10.18%—a ceiling for any rebound; 66,000–68,000 accounts for 8.87%—the largest buy zone.
Analysis framework (wait on the left, confirm on the right):
👉 Only when the price rebounds to 73,100–73,400 (where the daily MA200 and MA300 converge, with the weekly MA30 overlapping) and a 1-hour bearish divergence is confirmed does a potential shorting window emerge. Reference stop: 74,200; reference target: 66,500.
👉 Only when the price pulls back to 66,500–68,000 and a 4-hour bullish divergence is confirmed does a potential long-entry window emerge.
👉 A daily close above 73,100 invalidates the bearish thesis above.
Risks that must be made clear:
In 3 of the 20 samples, the price plunged more than 30% outright. Historical patterns can repeat, but they are never exact replicas. All price levels are probability-based scenarios, not predictions. If you do trade, a stop-loss is the one action you must never skip.
Data as of 2026-11-13 10:00 (UTC+8)
The above is historical data research and does not constitute investment advice.
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