Earnings season: check guidance first, then profits
Let’s go through the U.S. stock numbers first, then decide whether crypto follows.
These macro figures are current prices, not memories:
Gold 3,910 (5-day -4.97%, Yahoo)
Dow 52,297 (5-day +1.50%, Yahoo)
Crude oil 88.40 (5-day +1.78%, Yahoo)
So: the dollar is up +1.48% over 5 days and is strong; BTC is down -3.41%. They’re moving in opposite directions. Don’t talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto: BTC 71146 (-3.41%), funding rate 0.0100% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH at -1.69% is stronger than BTC at -3.41%; the exchange rate is 0.02835. This looks like risk appetite spilling over, not BTC acting alone.
Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep climbing, I’ll treat any rebound in growth stocks and BTC as a bounce.
My position: I’m not buying the first dip. Until the decline brings down open interest, entering early is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left out.
Would you place bids at pullback levels, or wait for the candle to close?
#宏观 #BTC #U.S. stocks
Takeaway: During earnings season, listen to guidance, not the CEO’s vision for next year.
Idea: VIX<16: You can follow sentiment during a gradual rise in U.S. stocks; reduce futures positions by one notch first.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing figures are shown as dashes):
BTC 71,146 -3.41% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,017 -1.69% ETH/BTC 0.02835
S&P 7,592 +3.25% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,366 +4.32% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.48% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.70 -27.07% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.17B (24h -0.48) Long/short 3.1203 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “"bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks" - Google News.” I’m treating that only as background; the conclusion is still based on the figures in the main text.
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the figures. Not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Let’s go through the U.S. stock numbers first, then decide whether crypto follows.
These macro figures are current prices, not memories:
Gold 3,910 (5-day -4.97%, Yahoo)
Dow 52,297 (5-day +1.50%, Yahoo)
Crude oil 88.40 (5-day +1.78%, Yahoo)
So: the dollar is up +1.48% over 5 days and is strong; BTC is down -3.41%. They’re moving in opposite directions. Don’t talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto: BTC 71146 (-3.41%), funding rate 0.0100% (8h, Binance USDⓈ-M). ETH at -1.69% is stronger than BTC at -3.41%; the exchange rate is 0.02835. This looks like risk appetite spilling over, not BTC acting alone.
Next, watch whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep climbing, I’ll treat any rebound in growth stocks and BTC as a bounce.
My position: I’m not buying the first dip. Until the decline brings down open interest, entering early is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left out.
Would you place bids at pullback levels, or wait for the candle to close?
#宏观 #BTC #U.S. stocks
Takeaway: During earnings season, listen to guidance, not the CEO’s vision for next year.
Idea: VIX<16: You can follow sentiment during a gradual rise in U.S. stocks; reduce futures positions by one notch first.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing figures are shown as dashes):
BTC 71,146 -3.41% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,017 -1.69% ETH/BTC 0.02835
S&P 7,592 +3.25% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,366 +4.32% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.48% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.70 -27.07% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.17B (24h -0.48) Long/short 3.1203 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people are discussing “"bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks" - Google News.” I’m treating that only as background; the conclusion is still based on the figures in the main text.
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the figures. Not a trading instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL