My view remains unchanged from yesterday.
After Friday’s PPI data is released, this will be the most important turning point for BTC. Watch closely.
Scenario 1: BTC breaks below 70,000 on high volume, with three consecutive 4-hour candles closing below 70,000 and no subsequent high-volume reclaim. This would confirm that 70,000 has been lost intraday. From there—not necessarily immediately—BTC is more likely to continue falling toward the 65,000–68,000 range.
Scenario 2: BTC breaks below 70,000 on high volume, then forms a long lower wick. The next 4-hour candle closes strongly back above 70,000, and BTC stays above 70,000 for 2–3 4-hour candles. This would confirm that 70,000 has held as intraday support. From there—not necessarily immediately—BTC is more likely to temporarily stop falling and, after consolidating, begin a rebound (not a reversal).
Of these two scenarios, I personally lean toward Scenario 1 because I’m holding a short position, so I’m naturally bearish. But the market isn’t mine, and I don’t get to decide what happens. We’ll see what the price action chooses.
After Friday’s PPI data is released, this will be the most important turning point for BTC. Watch closely.
Scenario 1: BTC breaks below 70,000 on high volume, with three consecutive 4-hour candles closing below 70,000 and no subsequent high-volume reclaim. This would confirm that 70,000 has been lost intraday. From there—not necessarily immediately—BTC is more likely to continue falling toward the 65,000–68,000 range.
Scenario 2: BTC breaks below 70,000 on high volume, then forms a long lower wick. The next 4-hour candle closes strongly back above 70,000, and BTC stays above 70,000 for 2–3 4-hour candles. This would confirm that 70,000 has held as intraday support. From there—not necessarily immediately—BTC is more likely to temporarily stop falling and, after consolidating, begin a rebound (not a reversal).
Of these two scenarios, I personally lean toward Scenario 1 because I’m holding a short position, so I’m naturally bearish. But the market isn’t mine, and I don’t get to decide what happens. We’ll see what the price action chooses.