The Fear & Greed Index plunged overnight from 28 to 20, entering the extreme fear zone. But when I checked the top gainers and losers this morning, the first thing that caught my eye was a major coin that closed in the green.
In a nutshell: BTC has fallen to its lowest level since mid-August, ETH is hovering near its monthly low, and HYPE is the one holding up, thanks to buybacks funded with its own money. In a weak market, I’d rather look at who’s putting real money into buying than try to guess the bottom.
First, the broader market. CoinGecko shows BTC at around 71,100, down about 3.9% over 24 hours. It slid steadily from 74,000 during the day, and its current price is essentially at its 30-day daily-chart low; the 30-day high was above 84,000. Three forces are piling on: after Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected CPI, markets are betting on a December rate hike; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s sudden resignation weighed on tech stocks; and ETF outflows continue. According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $300 million on Wednesday, marking a fifth straight day of outflows and bringing the five-day total to about $1.44 billion. IBIT alone accounted for about $270 million.
Where I’m looking: the 72,700–73,200 range above. It was support a couple of days ago, but has now turned into resistance, and price can’t get back above it. I’m treating any bounce as just a bounce. Below, 71,000 is a psychological level. I don’t have any particularly reliable levels to reference further down, so I’m not planning to blindly buy at that price.
ETH is around 2,011, down 2.3% over 24 hours and about 9.5% over 7 days. It’s also sitting at its 30-day low, after reaching a high of 2,473. What’s even more striking is the ETH ETF outflows: about $145 million on Wednesday and roughly $520 million over 5 days. Relative to assets under management, redemption pressure is about three times that of BTC ETFs.
Now, HYPE. It’s still up a little over 1% in 24 hours, at around 72.7. Its intraday low was 69.5, and it’s now closing near the day’s high. At the same time, BNB is down 3.8% and SOL is down 2.5%. The main explanation I can find is buybacks: the on-chain analytics platform Onchain Lens estimates that Hyperliquid spent about $1.53 million over the past 24 hours to buy back and burn 21,200 HYPE at an average price of around 72.3. The cumulative amount burned has already exceeded 5% of the maximum supply. On top of that, the Elysium Layer 2 just launched, and HYPE was listed on South Korea’s two largest exchanges this week.
But don’t forget the other side of the story: it’s still down more than 5% for the week and remains over 20% below its September high near 98. HYPE ETFs also saw modest outflows on Wednesday. So my take is that it’s relatively strong in a weak market, not moving independently.
Altcoins are showing a wide divergence.
- Decliners: AGT fell another 18% or so in 24 hours. Yesterday morning I said to check the unlock schedule first, and a small unlock is due in the early hours of tomorrow. INIT fell about 14%; much of the rally after the short squeeze following the chain halt has been given back over the past couple of days.
- Gainers: JUP and TIA rose a modest 4% to 5%; DODO and MAGMA gained around 20% in a day, but trading volume was only a few tens of millions of dollars. Their market caps are too small, so I’m just watching, not trading.
The main event today is the US October PPI at 21:30. CPI has already come in hot, and if PPI also exceeds expectations, bets on a December rate hike will firm up, likely keeping pressure on BTC and tech stocks. If it comes in below expectations, shorts have piled up over the past few days, so a rebound could come quickly. It’s also worth watching whether ETFs can break their six-day outflow streak before the weekend.
My approach: keep my position size lighter than usual, reduce leverage, and avoid betting on a direction before the PPI release. I’m in no rush to buy the dip around 71,000; first I want to see whether 72,700 can be reclaimed.
A practical question for everyone: after this run of consecutive drops, are you buying in gradually, or staying completely out until the PPI is released?
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk.