BTC breaks below 72,700: The easiest way to lose money over the weekend isn’t by picking the wrong direction—it’s getting caught by a wick.
Friday, November 13: $BTC 71,200 (-3.94%), $ETH 2,012 (-2.47%), $SOL 81.53 (-2.58%), BNB 656 (-3.77%). Yesterday, I said a move below 72,727 would be a false breakdown. It came this morning: a low of 71,113, a 24-hour high of 74,217, and a long lower wick spanning 3,100 points.
Three details will determine how to approach the weekend:
1) Longs are still crowded. The BTC futures account long/short ratio is 3.18, with 76% of accounts long. Positions haven’t decreased even as the price fell. This setup is especially vulnerable to a quick downward wick that sweeps positions before the price rebounds.
2) The funding rate is still positive (+0.01%), which suggests no one has truly panicked and exited yet—leverage is simply being worn down. A true bottom is usually accompanied by funding rates and open interest both dropping toward zero.
3) ETH/BTC is at 0.0283, slightly up from 0.0278 yesterday. ETH isn’t leading the decline, which is rare relative strength in a weak market.
My weekend approach: don’t bet on direction; bet on levels.
· 71,100 is this week’s low. If it breaks and the price can’t reclaim it within a 4-hour candle, the next level to watch is the 70,000 round number.
· 72,700–73,200 is the support that just broke. If the price rebounds there, take half off first—don’t expect it to reclaim 74,800 in one go.
· Weekend liquidity is thin. Cut leverage to half your usual level and put stops beyond the structure. Better to get stopped out than to stubbornly hold a losing position.
Next week, I’ll be watching just two things: whether BTC can reclaim 73,200 (to determine direction), and whether ETH/BTC can break above 0.0290 (to determine which one rebounds first).
This is not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Friday, November 13: $BTC 71,200 (-3.94%), $ETH 2,012 (-2.47%), $SOL 81.53 (-2.58%), BNB 656 (-3.77%). Yesterday, I said a move below 72,727 would be a false breakdown. It came this morning: a low of 71,113, a 24-hour high of 74,217, and a long lower wick spanning 3,100 points.
Three details will determine how to approach the weekend:
1) Longs are still crowded. The BTC futures account long/short ratio is 3.18, with 76% of accounts long. Positions haven’t decreased even as the price fell. This setup is especially vulnerable to a quick downward wick that sweeps positions before the price rebounds.
2) The funding rate is still positive (+0.01%), which suggests no one has truly panicked and exited yet—leverage is simply being worn down. A true bottom is usually accompanied by funding rates and open interest both dropping toward zero.
3) ETH/BTC is at 0.0283, slightly up from 0.0278 yesterday. ETH isn’t leading the decline, which is rare relative strength in a weak market.
My weekend approach: don’t bet on direction; bet on levels.
· 71,100 is this week’s low. If it breaks and the price can’t reclaim it within a 4-hour candle, the next level to watch is the 70,000 round number.
· 72,700–73,200 is the support that just broke. If the price rebounds there, take half off first—don’t expect it to reclaim 74,800 in one go.
· Weekend liquidity is thin. Cut leverage to half your usual level and put stops beyond the structure. Better to get stopped out than to stubbornly hold a losing position.
Next week, I’ll be watching just two things: whether BTC can reclaim 73,200 (to determine direction), and whether ETH/BTC can break above 0.0290 (to determine which one rebounds first).
This is not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOL
