Beijing time, 08:00. Overnight, tech stocks recovered from their lows, while BTC and gold failed to follow suit. This morning, watch for semiconductor stocks to find support on a pullback; for BTC and gold, the focus remains on whether a rebound can hold. First up today is crypto options settlement from 15:30 to 16:00, followed by U.S. PPI at 21:30.

Nvidia rebounds from its low; watch for semiconductor stocks to find support on a pullback

After news that Jensen Huang would step down, Nvidia briefly fell about 14% intraday, before closing at $166.19, down 4.34%. The S&P 500 closed at 7,592.40 and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,366.09, down 0.35% and 0.39%, respectively. The VIX was at 18.70 at 05:15, compared with 17.49 previously. At 07:46, Nasdaq 100 and S&P futures were around 28,564.75 and 7,644, respectively, both above their levels at 22:00 last night.

08:00 Binance perpetuals: SNDK 957.71, SKHYNIX 966.65, SOXL 67.91, QQQ 693.10. Updated the intraday order for monitoring support on pullbacks. First check SKHYNIX against the Korean cash market open; for SOXL and QQQ, watch whether they hold around 64.13 and 687.30, respectively. If they lose these levels and the rebound fails, downgrade the recovery outlook. The 4-hour and daily charts still need to be assessed separately. U.S. market close · Nvidia

Treasury yields rebound, keeping gold under pressure

The Dollar Index was at 103.170 at 07:04, versus around 102.953 last night. On November 12, U.S. Treasury yields for the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year were 4.86%, 5.10%, and 5.43%, up 13, 12, and 8 basis points, respectively, from the previous trading day. The 10-year real yield rose to 2.86%. The 30-year bond auction cleared at 5.441%, with the bid-to-cover ratio falling from 2.54 to 2.36.

Initial U.S. jobless claims came in at 200,000, slightly above the 195,000 forecast. Existing home sales then came in at an annualized 3.75 million, below the reference forecast of 3.87 million. Despite the softer data, the dollar and long-term yields continued to rise. Gold perpetuals closed at 3,889.01 at 08:00, after dipping to 3,860.25 overnight. First watch whether a rebound can hold intraday; upgrade the recovery outlook only if it reclaims 3,909 and 3,924.99 and holds on a retest. Continue watching the 4-hour structure around 3,881.02. U.S. Treasury · NAR · Binance Gold Perpetuals

U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by about 4.7 million barrels, but oil prices still rose, with WTI and Brent settling at $88.74 and $95.82, respectively. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and risks to Saudi facilities still need to be confirmed by actual shipments. This morning, Polymarket odds for a 25-basis-point hike in December were 87.5%, and for a 50-basis-point hike or more were 10.25%, compared with 86.5% and 8.2% last night. The official CME probability-by-probability snapshot is not yet available. Tonight, watch whether the dollar, yields, and rate-hike bets move in tandem after PPI.

Six coins are diverging; BTC remains the reference point

  • BTC 71,449. Below last night’s 22:00 level of 72,476.10. First watch for a rebound near 71,470. Only lower the short-term breakdown assessment if it regains and holds above 71,674.1 and holds on a retest.

  • ETH 2,020.11, SOL 81.76. For ETH, watch whether it can reclaim 2,027.43; for SOL, watch whether it loses 81.25 again. First look to 82.13 overhead.

  • HYPE 72.732, XRP 1.0415. Both are relatively strong; watch whether they hold 72.672 and 1.0403, respectively. If they close back below those levels and fail to rebound, resume monitoring for weakness.

  • ZEC 954. It dipped to 930.21 overnight and returned above 951.10 this morning. First watch the retest; raise the downside-break assessment only if it loses that level and the rebound fails. First look to 977.25 overhead.

The above are Binance USDT perpetual closing prices at 08:00. MSTR U.S. cash equities closed at $114.41. The MSCI rebalancing is still expected at the U.S. close on November 30. At 08:00, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 28 to 20, entering Extreme Fear. ETF disclosures are not yet complete; today, watch the options settlement first.

U.S. ETF disclosures for November 12 are still incomplete. Disclosed net outflows were $6.7 million for ETH and $9.9 million for the single-product ZCSH. The sources tracking BTC, SOL, HYPE, and XRP have not yet disclosed their daily net flows. The latest GLD and SLV holdings are still as of November 11, at 1,041.08 tonnes and 15,684.52 tonnes, respectively, down 1.14 tonnes and 11.23 tonnes.

The contracts expire in the same batch today. Deribit’s max-pain levels for BTC and ETH remain 76,000 and 2,200, respectively, while open interest in ETH 2,000 puts has fallen significantly. NDXP rose from 28,350 to 28,400, while COMEX gold OG2’s final settlement held at 4,040. These levels are for monitoring settlement volatility. NDX and QQQ, and gold futures and GLD, each track their respective markets.

Today’s three key windows

15:30–16:00 Deribit settlement, 21:30 U.S. PPI, and 22:30 U.S. cash market open, all Beijing time. 21:45 is the U.S. session strategy slot; regular U.S. trading runs until 05:00 the next day. The reference forecasts for headline and core monthly PPI are +0.4% and +0.3%, respectively.

If PPI comes in hot and the dollar and Treasury yields rise in tandem, first watch whether rebounds in gold and BTC are capped. If the dollar and yields both retreat, wait for gold and BTC to each reclaim key levels and hold on a retest before upgrading the recovery outlook.

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