Lay out the numbers on Friday morning for the hardest-hit names—the longs have already turned bearish, and some are taking that as proof the bottom is in. The data doesn’t look that way: it’s still stuck in the weekly trough, near the intraday low, while positions in a peer are still being added.
$STX: down about 9.4% on the day and 16.2% on the week, currently around 0.2846. The weekly high was around 0.3515, a pullback of about 19.0%. The account long/short ratio is around 0.60 (about 38% long; roughly a day ago it was around 0.93/48% long—the longs have been backing off and have now turned bearish). The funding rate is nearly flat, around −0.0001%/8h. Coin-margined OI is down about 5.2% over the past day (USDT-margined OI is down about 14.0%). Price slid from an intraday high of around 0.3152 to near the intraday low of around 0.2812, still in the weekly trough. Long positioning has fallen from around 48% to around 38% and turned bearish, and money is flowing out too—don’t take 0.2846 and the bearish flip in long positioning as proof the bottom is in, let alone assume that a roughly 9% drop and some capital outflow mean the risk has already been flushed out.
Meanwhile, $ENA is down about 6.0% on the day and 13.0% on the week, currently around 0.14075. The weekly high was around 0.1718, a pullback of about 18.1%. Long positioning is around 55% (long/short ratio around 1.22; roughly a day ago it was around 1.16/54% long, so longs have edged up). The funding rate is nearly flat, around −0.0002%/8h. Coin-margined OI is up about 6.3% over the past day (USDT-margined OI is nearly unchanged). Price slid from an intraday high of around 0.1504 to near the intraday low of around 0.1367, deeper in the weekly trough, while long positioning is still edging up and coin-margined positions are still being added.
One side has turned bearish and money is flowing out, yet price is still near the lows in the weekly trough; another peer is down about 6%, but longs are still edging up and coin-margined positions are still being added. Does this mean the bottom is in, or have positions on the board merely flipped sides while the trough continues and nearby positions keep building? Post a counterexample in the comments.
$STX: down about 9.4% on the day and 16.2% on the week, currently around 0.2846. The weekly high was around 0.3515, a pullback of about 19.0%. The account long/short ratio is around 0.60 (about 38% long; roughly a day ago it was around 0.93/48% long—the longs have been backing off and have now turned bearish). The funding rate is nearly flat, around −0.0001%/8h. Coin-margined OI is down about 5.2% over the past day (USDT-margined OI is down about 14.0%). Price slid from an intraday high of around 0.3152 to near the intraday low of around 0.2812, still in the weekly trough. Long positioning has fallen from around 48% to around 38% and turned bearish, and money is flowing out too—don’t take 0.2846 and the bearish flip in long positioning as proof the bottom is in, let alone assume that a roughly 9% drop and some capital outflow mean the risk has already been flushed out.
Meanwhile, $ENA is down about 6.0% on the day and 13.0% on the week, currently around 0.14075. The weekly high was around 0.1718, a pullback of about 18.1%. Long positioning is around 55% (long/short ratio around 1.22; roughly a day ago it was around 1.16/54% long, so longs have edged up). The funding rate is nearly flat, around −0.0002%/8h. Coin-margined OI is up about 6.3% over the past day (USDT-margined OI is nearly unchanged). Price slid from an intraday high of around 0.1504 to near the intraday low of around 0.1367, deeper in the weekly trough, while long positioning is still edging up and coin-margined positions are still being added.
One side has turned bearish and money is flowing out, yet price is still near the lows in the weekly trough; another peer is down about 6%, but longs are still edging up and coin-margined positions are still being added. Does this mean the bottom is in, or have positions on the board merely flipped sides while the trough continues and nearby positions keep building? Post a counterexample in the comments.
