U.S. Stocks: Watching the Rhythm—Where Are the Leaders?
Let’s finish going through the U.S. stock numbers first, then decide whether crypto will follow.
Numbers first, opinions after.
S&P 7,603 (5-day +3.38%, Yahoo)
Crude oil 88.43 (5-day +1.82%, Yahoo)
VIX 18.08 (5-day -29.49%)
My take: The dollar is strong, up 1.52% over 5 days; BTC is down 3.85%. They’re moving in opposite directions. Don’t talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto comparison: BTC 71565 (24h -3.85%), ETH 2011 (-3.36%). ETH at -3.36% is holding up better than BTC at -3.85%; the exchange rate is 0.02811. This looks like risk appetite spilling over, not BTC going it alone.
What to watch next: For the next move, see whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep climbing, I’ll treat rallies in growth stocks and BTC as bounces.
My position: I’m not trying to catch the first drop. Until the decline is accompanied by a reduction in open interest, buying on the way down is like catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
Would you dare add to your position at this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #Trading Watch
Useful takeaway: Market cap = price × circulating supply. Using fully locked-up market cap as a measure of trading depth can be misleading.
Inspiration: The Nasdaq is clearly outperforming the S&P. I’m only following growth stocks’ higher beta, not making up a broad bull market.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 71,565 -3.85% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,011 -3.36% ETH/BTC 0.02811
S&P 7,603 +3.38% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,365 +4.32% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.52% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.08 -29.49% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.24B (24h -0.63) Long/short 3.1511 Binance USDⓈ-M
Supporting evidence: People are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks\" - Google News.” I’m only using it as background; my conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not a trade instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Let’s finish going through the U.S. stock numbers first, then decide whether crypto will follow.
Numbers first, opinions after.
S&P 7,603 (5-day +3.38%, Yahoo)
Crude oil 88.43 (5-day +1.82%, Yahoo)
VIX 18.08 (5-day -29.49%)
My take: The dollar is strong, up 1.52% over 5 days; BTC is down 3.85%. They’re moving in opposite directions. Don’t talk about a reversal before the dollar turns around.
Crypto comparison: BTC 71565 (24h -3.85%), ETH 2011 (-3.36%). ETH at -3.36% is holding up better than BTC at -3.85%; the exchange rate is 0.02811. This looks like risk appetite spilling over, not BTC going it alone.
What to watch next: For the next move, see whether the 10-year yield can stabilize. If yields keep climbing, I’ll treat rallies in growth stocks and BTC as bounces.
My position: I’m not trying to catch the first drop. Until the decline is accompanied by a reduction in open interest, buying on the way down is like catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing numbers are left blank.
Would you dare add to your position at this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #Trading Watch
Useful takeaway: Market cap = price × circulating supply. Using fully locked-up market cap as a measure of trading depth can be misleading.
Inspiration: The Nasdaq is clearly outperforming the S&P. I’m only following growth stocks’ higher beta, not making up a broad bull market.
Data card (same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 71,565 -3.85% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,011 -3.36% ETH/BTC 0.02811
S&P 7,603 +3.38% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,365 +4.32% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 103 +1.52% DXY 5-day
VIX 18.08 -29.49% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.24B (24h -0.63) Long/short 3.1511 Binance USDⓈ-M
Supporting evidence: People are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR U.S. stocks\" - Google News.” I’m only using it as background; my conclusions are still based on the numbers in the main text.
Personal opinion; see the sources in the main text for the numbers. This is not a trade instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL