BTC is stuck around 71,000. The problem isn’t that nobody is buying spot—spot is recovering; futures are the drag.
CryptoQuant’s note on November 11: total 30-day demand for spot + perpetuals was -348,000 BTC on November 10, its lowest level this month.
But a closer look shows a sharp divergence: from November 7–10, the spot demand proxy improved by about +29,500 BTC, while perpetual futures deteriorated by 63,500 BTC.
The funding rate fell from 0.0113% to 0.0051%, halving the cost of going long.
Exchanges saw a net outflow of 981 BTC on November 11, compared with a net inflow of 9,956 BTC the day before—selling pressure is easing.
But the overall picture is still negative: spot ETFs saw another $300 million in outflows on November 11, marking a fifth consecutive day.
My take: the spot market has stabilized first, but futures are still pulling prices down. That’s why the price can neither fall much further nor rise.
The key is that the rebound depends not on spot, but on the bleeding in futures stopping. We need to see both signals at once: the spot demand proxy moving back above zero and the deterioration in perpetuals narrowing. Only then will the market have a solid basis for a breakout from its range.
Next, watch how funding rates move after the PPI release at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, and whether spot demand continues to move toward zero.
When you watch the market, do you look at spot buying first or futures open interest? Which one would need to turn first for you to believe in a rebound?
$BTC #比特币 #加密市场 #PPI #Federal Reserve
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
CryptoQuant’s note on November 11: total 30-day demand for spot + perpetuals was -348,000 BTC on November 10, its lowest level this month.
But a closer look shows a sharp divergence: from November 7–10, the spot demand proxy improved by about +29,500 BTC, while perpetual futures deteriorated by 63,500 BTC.
The funding rate fell from 0.0113% to 0.0051%, halving the cost of going long.
Exchanges saw a net outflow of 981 BTC on November 11, compared with a net inflow of 9,956 BTC the day before—selling pressure is easing.
But the overall picture is still negative: spot ETFs saw another $300 million in outflows on November 11, marking a fifth consecutive day.
My take: the spot market has stabilized first, but futures are still pulling prices down. That’s why the price can neither fall much further nor rise.
The key is that the rebound depends not on spot, but on the bleeding in futures stopping. We need to see both signals at once: the spot demand proxy moving back above zero and the deterioration in perpetuals narrowing. Only then will the market have a solid basis for a breakout from its range.
Next, watch how funding rates move after the PPI release at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, and whether spot demand continues to move toward zero.
When you watch the market, do you look at spot buying first or futures open interest? Which one would need to turn first for you to believe in a rebound?
$BTC #比特币 #加密市场 #PPI #Federal Reserve
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.