The $ETH fell below $2,000 today for the first time since August 19. So, have traders capitulated? Binance data suggests otherwise.
The day's low touched $1,983.82 on Binance during the 14:00 UTC candle, following an hour from 13:00 UTC with about $113M in spot volume (versus $6–11M per hour this morning). Since the November 11 high of $2,103.78 at 17:00 UTC, the decline has reached 5.7%.
Yet at 16:00 UTC, 77.9% of accounts on the ETHUSDT perpetual contract were long, for a long/short ratio of 3.53. Over 30 days, this ratio has ranged between 1.83 and 3.95: so we're near the top of the range, in the middle of a decline. Open interest remains steady at around $4.71B over 24 hours, and funding is still slightly positive. No one has been forced out yet.
One detail that matters: among large accounts (top traders, measured by position size), the share of longs drops to 64.6%. Smaller accounts are buying the dip; larger ones are much less exposed. On the institutional side, US spot ETH ETFs lost $145M on November 11, their fifth consecutive day of outflows (SoSoValue), as the $BTC slides toward $71,500.
My take: a market falling while so many longs remain open has rarely finished flushing them out. If $2,000 holds at the close and ETFs return to inflows, those buyers will have been right. A daily close below $1,980, on the other hand, could trigger a cascade of liquidations, with August's $1,900 area as the next reference point.
Are you among the 78% holding their long, or are you waiting for the flush?
#Ethereum #Binance
Sources: Binance ETHUSDT API (spot, long/short ratios, open interest, Nov. 12, 16:00 UTC), SoSoValue via TokenPost and PANews. Not financial advice.
The day's low touched $1,983.82 on Binance during the 14:00 UTC candle, following an hour from 13:00 UTC with about $113M in spot volume (versus $6–11M per hour this morning). Since the November 11 high of $2,103.78 at 17:00 UTC, the decline has reached 5.7%.
Yet at 16:00 UTC, 77.9% of accounts on the ETHUSDT perpetual contract were long, for a long/short ratio of 3.53. Over 30 days, this ratio has ranged between 1.83 and 3.95: so we're near the top of the range, in the middle of a decline. Open interest remains steady at around $4.71B over 24 hours, and funding is still slightly positive. No one has been forced out yet.
One detail that matters: among large accounts (top traders, measured by position size), the share of longs drops to 64.6%. Smaller accounts are buying the dip; larger ones are much less exposed. On the institutional side, US spot ETH ETFs lost $145M on November 11, their fifth consecutive day of outflows (SoSoValue), as the $BTC slides toward $71,500.
My take: a market falling while so many longs remain open has rarely finished flushing them out. If $2,000 holds at the close and ETFs return to inflows, those buyers will have been right. A daily close below $1,980, on the other hand, could trigger a cascade of liquidations, with August's $1,900 area as the next reference point.
Are you among the 78% holding their long, or are you waiting for the flush?
#Ethereum #Binance
Sources: Binance ETHUSDT API (spot, long/short ratios, open interest, Nov. 12, 16:00 UTC), SoSoValue via TokenPost and PANews. Not financial advice.
