UNI has just touched an even $6, and I’m not planning to jump in at this level.
First, some context. Tonight, BTC fell below $72,000, its lowest level since mid-August according to foreign media. News of Jensen Huang resigning from NVIDIA, along with five straight days of net outflows from spot ETFs, has weighed on both U.S. stocks and crypto. When the broader market weakens, high-beta coins like those in DeFi tend to fall harder. Over the past 24 hours, UNI slid from around $6.6 to $6.0, down more than 8%.
But after a few years of trading, my habit is to look at where the money is going before I look at the candlestick chart when prices fall. Two things about UNI are making me uneasy:
1. According to on-chain analysis, a whale wallet that received around 20 million UNI from the Uniswap treasury (Timelock) years ago sold about $7.3 million worth of UNI over the two days around November 7. It still holds more than 19 million tokens. At current prices, that leaves another potential source of selling pressure worth well over $100 million hanging over the market.
2. Uniswap’s TVL on DeFiLlama was around $3.9 billion a month ago; now it’s about $3.39 billion, down by more than 10%. Money is flowing out, not in.
The whale hasn’t finished selling, TVL is shrinking, and the broader market has just broken down. With all three happening at once, the $6 round-number mark looks more like a psychological level everyone is watching than a bottom to me.
Before bed, I set myself a few rules:
- Don’t buy the dip near the $6 level. At the very least, wait for it to reclaim $6.6—the level where it started falling today—before considering it.
- Add that whale wallet to my watchlist. If it transfers more tokens to an exchange, I’ll keep waiting.
- Reduce leverage on my open futures positions for now. The U.S. session is still underway tonight, and flash crashes don’t discriminate.
Of course, I could be too cautious, and if $6 holds, we could see a rebound. Let’s talk: if UNI drops to $6, would you try a small position, or would you wait to see what the whale does, like me?
$UNI $BTC $ETH
These are only my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
First, some context. Tonight, BTC fell below $72,000, its lowest level since mid-August according to foreign media. News of Jensen Huang resigning from NVIDIA, along with five straight days of net outflows from spot ETFs, has weighed on both U.S. stocks and crypto. When the broader market weakens, high-beta coins like those in DeFi tend to fall harder. Over the past 24 hours, UNI slid from around $6.6 to $6.0, down more than 8%.
But after a few years of trading, my habit is to look at where the money is going before I look at the candlestick chart when prices fall. Two things about UNI are making me uneasy:
1. According to on-chain analysis, a whale wallet that received around 20 million UNI from the Uniswap treasury (Timelock) years ago sold about $7.3 million worth of UNI over the two days around November 7. It still holds more than 19 million tokens. At current prices, that leaves another potential source of selling pressure worth well over $100 million hanging over the market.
2. Uniswap’s TVL on DeFiLlama was around $3.9 billion a month ago; now it’s about $3.39 billion, down by more than 10%. Money is flowing out, not in.
The whale hasn’t finished selling, TVL is shrinking, and the broader market has just broken down. With all three happening at once, the $6 round-number mark looks more like a psychological level everyone is watching than a bottom to me.
Before bed, I set myself a few rules:
- Don’t buy the dip near the $6 level. At the very least, wait for it to reclaim $6.6—the level where it started falling today—before considering it.
- Add that whale wallet to my watchlist. If it transfers more tokens to an exchange, I’ll keep waiting.
- Reduce leverage on my open futures positions for now. The U.S. session is still underway tonight, and flash crashes don’t discriminate.
Of course, I could be too cautious, and if $6 holds, we could see a rebound. Let’s talk: if UNI drops to $6, would you try a small position, or would you wait to see what the whale does, like me?
$UNI $BTC $ETH
These are only my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.