Reason:

Bitcoin did initially rise — it topped $80,000 after oil fell 12% on November 4. By Monday, its price had dropped to around $73,600.

Gasoline accounted for more than half of the rise in U.S. prices in September. Traders hoped cheaper fuel would keep the Fed from raising interest rates.

On Tuesday, those expectations collapsed. Inflation rose by 0.4% in October, exceeding forecasts. Rate futures completely ruled out a pause—with an 88.8% probability, the market expects a 0.25 percentage-point hike.

“Raising rates by just 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk—I don’t want to risk that,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

The Fed’s decision will be announced on December 9. Until then, bitcoin traders are watching two factors: Iran’s actions and inflation in the U.S.