Ethereum has dropped from 2,524 on 21 October to around 2,045 today, a fall of almost 20% in three weeks. The selling has been orderly rather than panicked, and that is what makes the structure useful: each bounce has stopped below the one before it.
Why short?
The 4H highs tell the story: 2,448 on 4 November, 2,250 on 6 November, 2,157 on 9 November, 2,134 on 10 November and 2,101 yesterday. Meanwhile, the 2,080 to 2,100 area that held as support on 8 and 9 November gave way on 10 November and has already capped one bounce from below. As long as that zone holds, the path of least resistance stays lower, towards the area that capped price through July.
The trade plan (4H)
Direction: Short
Entry: 2,095, a retest of broken support at 2,080 to 2,100
Stop loss: 2,170, above the 9 November high at 2,157
Take profit: 1,930, inside the July ceiling (1,900 to 1,980), which could now act as support
Risk to reward: roughly 1:2.2
Levels to watch on the way
The round number at 2,000 has held twice this week (2,004 on 10 November and 2,033 yesterday). A clean break below it would likely speed the move up, so expect a reaction there first.
What would change my mind
A 4H close above 2,160 would break the run of lower highs and suggest a deeper recovery towards 2,250.
A 75-dollar stop on Ethereum is a very different risk from a 50-pip stop on EUR/USD, so I let Dealsize.ai work out the deal size for each one. That keeps my risk per trade consistent across assets, and its AI analysis gives me a second opinion before I commit.
Does the 2,000 floor give way next, or is Ethereum close to a bounce? Let us know in the comments.
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