0.08328 to 0.08309 USDT, just 0.00019 apart. The former is POL’s rolling daily low; the latter is the lowest point among the last thirty closed daily candles. When trading futures, it’s easy to see two levels so close together and mistake that small price gap for the risk of the entire trade. But based on closed 4-hour candles, ATR14 is about 0.00178 USDT, calculated as the arithmetic mean of the true ranges over fourteen candles, including gaps between the highs and lows and the previous close. If you plan to wait for candle-close confirmation, size your position based on the distance from entry to exit, and allow some room for slippage. If you open a position based on the distance between those two lows, your loss by the time you actually exit could be much larger than you originally estimated.

Binance spot data shows 0.08405 USDT, down 5.178% over the rolling 24 hours. The candle at 4 p.m. closed at 0.08479, already below the low of the previous seven completed daily candles at 0.08508. During the evening session, price briefly returned to 0.08560, but at the time of the data snapshot it was back below the old low. I’ll treat 0.08508 as the first level that should elicit a response on a rebound; another intraday test would have limited significance. The midday low at 0.08592 is above it, and the afternoon decline started from there. Only after price reclaims the old low and recovers this stretch of losses will there be room to look higher.

For a rebound, wait for a full 4-hour candle to hold above 0.08592, with volume exceeding the average of about 5.43 million tokens across the latest twenty or so completed 4-hour candles. Then watch whether a pullback holds the old low on lower volume. Consider a small position only if these conditions appear. To the upside, watch the midday high at 0.08679; if price reclaims that level too, then watch the 4-hour EMA20 around 0.08801. If price is already near the midday high when the setup is confirmed, you can wait for a pullback before assessing the upside. After entering a trial position, exit the trade based on reclaiming the old low if a 4-hour candle closes back below 0.08508.

On the other side of the chart, the evening low has already broken below 0.08441, the level left by the afternoon session. If a full 4-hour candle closes below 0.08328 and the subsequent rebound also fails to close back above it, the odds of revisiting the 30-day low will rise. If a candle closes below 0.08309 as well, the plan to rely on support from this low zone is invalidated, and any existing trial position should be exited. Below the old low, wait for a new low and a rebound high to form. If all you see is a candle with a long lower wick, I’ll note where it closes and save this position allocation for the next candle.

#行情分析 $POL