1. The day’s market in one sentence
As of around 9 p.m. Beijing time, Binance spot $BTC was around $72,900, down about 1.4% over 24 hours. For most of the day, it stayed within a range of roughly $73,300 to $74,800, with a range of only about 2%. For a while, it looked like one of the quieter days this week; however, two consecutive hourly candles fell sharply between 7 and 8 p.m., with a low of around $72,700. Their trading volumes were about $59 million and $54 million, respectively—clearly higher than the afternoon’s roughly $15 million to $28 million—and the price is still near this latest low. $ETH was around $2,022, down about 1.5%, with an intraday low of around $2,013, nearing the $2,000 round-number level; $BNB was around $660, down about 3.2%. It held up relatively well during the day, but in the evening it ended up with the steepest drop among the major coins. The Fear & Greed Index came in at 28, remaining in the “Fear” zone and slightly below yesterday’s 29.
II. The key takeaway today: The morning asked “decoupling or lagging?” By evening, both had moved lower in sync
We discussed this in the morning: U.S. stocks rebounded on the 11th (the Nasdaq was up about 1.60%), but crypto failed to ride the wave back above 75,000. By the evening in Asia, that relationship had flipped. According to CoinDesk, Nvidia fell about 7% in premarket trading amid rumors about its CEO’s future, while Nasdaq futures gave back about 0.6%, surrendering part of the previous day’s tech-led rebound; $BTC fell below its daytime low at almost the same time. Put the two moves together, and it looks more like risk appetite weakened first in tech stocks, with crypto following, rather than crypto continuing to trade sideways in its own narrow range. Still, two high-volume down candles alone aren’t enough to conclude that the markets are “re-correlating”: it’s also possible the lower end of the daytime range was simply due for a test. The funding figures we checked this afternoon—the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $300 million on the 11th, bringing the five-day total to about $1.44 billion—remain relevant background, so we won’t revisit them here. The same report also said that futures liquidations across the market totaled about $264 million over the past 24 hours, down about 64% from the previous day, indicating that this dip did not turn into a wave of mass liquidations.
III. Price levels matter more than the move: After losing the daytime level we were watching, yesterday’s low is now in focus
This morning, we identified around 73,200 (near the 200-day moving average and also the overnight low) as the first level to watch. The evening low was around 72,700, slipping slightly below that level and nearing the low of around 72,700 reached during the CPI shock on the 11th. What matters next isn’t automatically interpreting this drop as a trend reversal, but whether this low-price zone holds overnight, and whether $BNB ’s relative weakness spreads to $ETH and $BTC . U.S. initial jobless claims will be released at around 9:30 p.m. Beijing time and could add another layer of volatility, but a single data release is not a directional signal either. Trading pairs to watch: BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, BNBUSDT.
Join the discussion:
1) $BTC fell on high volume below around 73,200 at the same time Nvidia dropped sharply in premarket trading. Do you see this as crypto once again following tech stocks’ risk appetite, or was the lower end of the narrow daytime range bound to be tested sooner or later?
2) What will you watch first: whether around 72,700 (near yesterday’s CPI low) holds, or whether $BNB ’s relative weakness spreads? Why?
Investing involves risk; make decisions with caution. The above is for information sharing and discussion only and does not constitute investment advice.