On-chain reading | Today’s hexagram: Wind over Heaven, Small Taming — small accumulations add up: first the small money, then the big money arrives.
Spot BTC ETFs have seen outflows for five straight days, and BTC has pierced its 200-day moving average: outflows are picking up again, but where are the buyers?
Sources: SoSoValue (via PANews, CoinDesk, and Cointelegraph), CoinGlass, Finnhub (Binance BTC/USDT), Glassnode (Oct. 28 weekly report), Odaily, and BlockBeats; snapshot taken the morning of 11-12. Figures are given as ranges where appropriate; they have not been forced into a single number.
First, the outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $430 million on Nov. 5, $412 million on the 6th, $201 million on the 9th, $95 million on the 10th, and $299.9 million on the 11th—five straight days of outflows. Outflows on the 11th were three times those on the 10th, bringing cumulative outflows for November to about $1.88 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $78.23 million in outflows on the 10th, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of redemptions and bringing its eight-day total to about $1.73 billion. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, by contrast, saw inflows of $20.02 million on the 10th. Ethereum ETFs also saw $1.32 million in outflows on the 10th, their fourth consecutive day of outflows.
Now, the buyers: Full figures for Nov. 11 are in—net outflows of $299.9 million. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $269.7 million in outflows, and Grayscale’s GBTC saw $39.13 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was the only fund to see inflows, at +$8.96 million. There was also activity on-chain: a whale address, 0xdDE, which was down over $2 million on DOGE, turned around and bought about $10 million worth of ETH; an OG who received 1 million ETH in the 2015 ICO bought another 1,451 ETH on Nov. 11 at about $2,064 each; and “7 Siblings” bought 10,792 ETH on Nov. 11 at about $2,038 each, worth roughly $22 million. We couldn’t retrieve comprehensive figures this time for holder count, the top 10 holders’ share, or 24-hour transfer count, so we won’t make them up.
Timeline: 2026-11-05, ETF outflows of $430 million for the day; 2026-11-06, outflows of $412 million; 2026-11-09, outflows of $201 million; 2026-11-10 21:30, October CPI released: headline +0.4%, core +0.3%, both above expectations. BTC fell from about $74,770 to $73,525 in five minutes; ETF outflows that day were $95 million; 2026-11-11, BTC hit a low of $73,209 and closed at $73,904. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.60% and the S&P 500 rose 1.31%, but BTC didn’t follow; 2026-11-12, BTC briefly fell to about $72,735 during the day, piercing the 200-day moving average at around $73,151; at 20:27 it was around $72,854; 2026-11-13 21:30, October PPI is released.
In the past, ETF outflows were a leading indicator of selling pressure: the money left, then the price fell. Now, after five days of outflows that picked up again on the 11th, BTC pierced its 200-day moving average during the day and failed to follow the Nasdaq’s rebound. But U.S. equity ETFs have averaged about $12 billion in daily inflows over the past five days. The money hasn’t disappeared; it has gone to stocks first. Glassnode’s weekly report from two weeks ago noted that long-term holders have about 4 million coins with a cost basis of $85,000–$118,000, all now underwater. The first hurdle on the way up is selling from holders looking to break even. But short-term holders’ cost basis is around $75,800, and the true market mean is about $77,900. The price is hovering around the cost-basis line; fewer and fewer people are selling, while buyers are lining up at the door. The whale switching from DOGE to ETH after taking a loss, and the OG and 7 Siblings buying ETH just above $2,000, are all examples of the same move.
Honestly, ETF outflows are picking up again and the price has pierced its 200-day moving average, but whales are still rotating into other assets and buying the dip. Put together, these things look like the frustrating grind of a bottom, not a crash. PPI comes out tomorrow at 21:30. With CPI running hot, another hot PPI reading would keep the rate-hike pressure on. But the $73,000 level was pierced today, and whether BTC can reclaim it is key.
PPI drops tomorrow at 21:30. I’ll report the news as soon as it’s out—follow me. I’ll keep an eye on whether BTC can hold the $73,000 level, with three updates a day.
The hexagram has been cast; set your own position. — Shengshou
On-chain data is based on public snapshots. The metaphysical content is for entertainment and does not constitute investment advice.
#玄学炒币 #链上数据 #BTC #ETF
Spot BTC ETFs have seen outflows for five straight days, and BTC has pierced its 200-day moving average: outflows are picking up again, but where are the buyers?
Sources: SoSoValue (via PANews, CoinDesk, and Cointelegraph), CoinGlass, Finnhub (Binance BTC/USDT), Glassnode (Oct. 28 weekly report), Odaily, and BlockBeats; snapshot taken the morning of 11-12. Figures are given as ranges where appropriate; they have not been forced into a single number.
First, the outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $430 million on Nov. 5, $412 million on the 6th, $201 million on the 9th, $95 million on the 10th, and $299.9 million on the 11th—five straight days of outflows. Outflows on the 11th were three times those on the 10th, bringing cumulative outflows for November to about $1.88 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $78.23 million in outflows on the 10th, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of redemptions and bringing its eight-day total to about $1.73 billion. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, by contrast, saw inflows of $20.02 million on the 10th. Ethereum ETFs also saw $1.32 million in outflows on the 10th, their fourth consecutive day of outflows.
Now, the buyers: Full figures for Nov. 11 are in—net outflows of $299.9 million. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $269.7 million in outflows, and Grayscale’s GBTC saw $39.13 million. Morgan Stanley’s MSBT was the only fund to see inflows, at +$8.96 million. There was also activity on-chain: a whale address, 0xdDE, which was down over $2 million on DOGE, turned around and bought about $10 million worth of ETH; an OG who received 1 million ETH in the 2015 ICO bought another 1,451 ETH on Nov. 11 at about $2,064 each; and “7 Siblings” bought 10,792 ETH on Nov. 11 at about $2,038 each, worth roughly $22 million. We couldn’t retrieve comprehensive figures this time for holder count, the top 10 holders’ share, or 24-hour transfer count, so we won’t make them up.
Timeline: 2026-11-05, ETF outflows of $430 million for the day; 2026-11-06, outflows of $412 million; 2026-11-09, outflows of $201 million; 2026-11-10 21:30, October CPI released: headline +0.4%, core +0.3%, both above expectations. BTC fell from about $74,770 to $73,525 in five minutes; ETF outflows that day were $95 million; 2026-11-11, BTC hit a low of $73,209 and closed at $73,904. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.60% and the S&P 500 rose 1.31%, but BTC didn’t follow; 2026-11-12, BTC briefly fell to about $72,735 during the day, piercing the 200-day moving average at around $73,151; at 20:27 it was around $72,854; 2026-11-13 21:30, October PPI is released.
In the past, ETF outflows were a leading indicator of selling pressure: the money left, then the price fell. Now, after five days of outflows that picked up again on the 11th, BTC pierced its 200-day moving average during the day and failed to follow the Nasdaq’s rebound. But U.S. equity ETFs have averaged about $12 billion in daily inflows over the past five days. The money hasn’t disappeared; it has gone to stocks first. Glassnode’s weekly report from two weeks ago noted that long-term holders have about 4 million coins with a cost basis of $85,000–$118,000, all now underwater. The first hurdle on the way up is selling from holders looking to break even. But short-term holders’ cost basis is around $75,800, and the true market mean is about $77,900. The price is hovering around the cost-basis line; fewer and fewer people are selling, while buyers are lining up at the door. The whale switching from DOGE to ETH after taking a loss, and the OG and 7 Siblings buying ETH just above $2,000, are all examples of the same move.
Honestly, ETF outflows are picking up again and the price has pierced its 200-day moving average, but whales are still rotating into other assets and buying the dip. Put together, these things look like the frustrating grind of a bottom, not a crash. PPI comes out tomorrow at 21:30. With CPI running hot, another hot PPI reading would keep the rate-hike pressure on. But the $73,000 level was pierced today, and whether BTC can reclaim it is key.
PPI drops tomorrow at 21:30. I’ll report the news as soon as it’s out—follow me. I’ll keep an eye on whether BTC can hold the $73,000 level, with three updates a day.
The hexagram has been cast; set your own position. — Shengshou
On-chain data is based on public snapshots. The metaphysical content is for entertainment and does not constitute investment advice.
#玄学炒币 #链上数据 #BTC #ETF