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Looking back at the run-up to the previous bull market, the setup was strikingly similar: both times, the market broke below a major-cycle low, but this time we’re still missing a defining panic sell-off.
There are only two possible paths from here:
① Worst-case scenario: a quick dip toward the 69,000 level to complete the “capitulation.” MSTR being removed from MSCI could be the sudden trigger, but I think the negative news has already been priced in;
② Buyers step in early, and the market launches a rebound without retesting the lows.
I personally lean toward the second scenario. Either way, the bears don’t have much time left to drive the market down. Strategy-wise, don’t take a large position early to bet on direction. Stay observant and wait for a clear signal from the market before making a move.
This is only an analysis of market dynamics and does not constitute investment advice.
Looking back at the run-up to the previous bull market, the setup was strikingly similar: both times, the market broke below a major-cycle low, but this time we’re still missing a defining panic sell-off.
There are only two possible paths from here:
① Worst-case scenario: a quick dip toward the 69,000 level to complete the “capitulation.” MSTR being removed from MSCI could be the sudden trigger, but I think the negative news has already been priced in;
② Buyers step in early, and the market launches a rebound without retesting the lows.
I personally lean toward the second scenario. Either way, the bears don’t have much time left to drive the market down. Strategy-wise, don’t take a large position early to bet on direction. Stay observant and wait for a clear signal from the market before making a move.
This is only an analysis of market dynamics and does not constitute investment advice.
