BTC has fallen below $73,000, and I’ll state my view first: now is not the time to buy the dip.
The 24-hour high is $74,811, and the current price is $72,910. Structurally, it’s lower highs and lower lows, one after another—you can count the 4-hour candlesticks yourself. Every rebound has been pushed back down below the previous high, and the main players never intended to let retail traders win. More importantly, the funding side is telling: the long-short ratio is 74.8%, meaning nearly 75% of retail traders are long. With such a crowded long side, history tells me that rallies are used to shake out retail, not to make you money.
The Taker buy/sell ratio has stayed below 0.9, which shows aggressive selling is suppressing price. Funding rate is 0.0062%, slightly positive, meaning longs are still paying. What does this combination mean? It means the current rebound is an escape rally, not a consensus rally.
ETH is even more extreme: 76.8% of retail traders are long. In my database, whenever this number appears, it either dumps hard or keeps grinding at the top and tortures holders. $2,022, intraday low $2,013, and the bottom support is as thin as paper.
My current stance is: BTC has short-term support at $73,000-$73,200, but if it cannot reclaim $73,500 before today’s close, tomorrow’s open will most likely point to the $71,500-$72,000 range. For ETH, the corresponding levels are $1,980-$2,000.
If the resonance doesn’t come, I won’t enter. Crowded longs + weakening structure + aggressive selling: three signals stacked together. I’m not betting on a rebound; I’m waiting for the real opportunity after a breakdown. If you currently have long positions, ask yourself: where is your stop loss?
Follow me, live stream + SMC training every night at 21:00
🌿 Surname Zhao, no comment | not financial advice
The 24-hour high is $74,811, and the current price is $72,910. Structurally, it’s lower highs and lower lows, one after another—you can count the 4-hour candlesticks yourself. Every rebound has been pushed back down below the previous high, and the main players never intended to let retail traders win. More importantly, the funding side is telling: the long-short ratio is 74.8%, meaning nearly 75% of retail traders are long. With such a crowded long side, history tells me that rallies are used to shake out retail, not to make you money.
The Taker buy/sell ratio has stayed below 0.9, which shows aggressive selling is suppressing price. Funding rate is 0.0062%, slightly positive, meaning longs are still paying. What does this combination mean? It means the current rebound is an escape rally, not a consensus rally.
ETH is even more extreme: 76.8% of retail traders are long. In my database, whenever this number appears, it either dumps hard or keeps grinding at the top and tortures holders. $2,022, intraday low $2,013, and the bottom support is as thin as paper.
My current stance is: BTC has short-term support at $73,000-$73,200, but if it cannot reclaim $73,500 before today’s close, tomorrow’s open will most likely point to the $71,500-$72,000 range. For ETH, the corresponding levels are $1,980-$2,000.
If the resonance doesn’t come, I won’t enter. Crowded longs + weakening structure + aggressive selling: three signals stacked together. I’m not betting on a rebound; I’m waiting for the real opportunity after a breakdown. If you currently have long positions, ask yourself: where is your stop loss?
Follow me, live stream + SMC training every night at 21:00
🌿 Surname Zhao, no comment | not financial advice