U.S. PPI tomorrow night at 21:30: Last month’s +1.3% was the biggest since 2022—watch these 3 numbers
Factory-gate prices jumped 1.3% last month. Will tomorrow night’s report show another surge?
We’ve seen the CPI. Tomorrow night (Friday, November 13), another inflation report is due at 21:30 Beijing time: the U.S. October PPI (Producer Price Index). The BLS schedule confirms it will be released at 08:30 Eastern Time.
First, just how strong was the last report? (September data released by the BLS on October 15):
- Final demand PPI rose 1.3% month over month, the biggest increase since March 2022 (+1.7%);
- The unadjusted year-over-year increase was 6.3%, the highest since December 2022;
- Goods prices rose 2.6% month over month, the biggest increase since this data series began in December 2009. More than 80% of the increase came from energy (+10.8%), with gasoline alone up 20.3%;
- “Core” PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.5% month over month and 5.0% year over year.
How does PPI differ from CPI? CPI measures what you pay at the supermarket; PPI measures what businesses charge for the goods and services they sell, upstream from CPI. October CPI, released Tuesday, rose 0.4% month over month (after +0.6% in September), with energy up just 0.7% (after +5.2% in September). Energy inflation has cooled for consumers. Tomorrow night, we’ll see whether that’s also true at the factory gate.
What to watch tomorrow night: just 3 numbers:
1. Headline month-over-month change: How much has it cooled from September’s +1.3%?
2. Energy component: September was +10.8%. If CPI energy is up just 0.7% while PPI energy is still surging, that suggests upstream cost pressures have yet to fully pass through.
3. Core (excluding food, energy, and trade services): September was +0.5% month over month and +5.0% year over year. If the headline improves because oil prices have fallen but core doesn’t cool, that tells us more than the headline alone.
Two easy pitfalls to avoid:
- The previous figures can be revised. This time, the BLS revised data for May–August. When comparing tomorrow night’s figures, use the revised September value in the new table—not the old +1.3% figure.
- Volatility and spreads can widen in the minutes before and after the release. If you’re using leverage, reduce your position in advance and set your stop-loss. Don’t chase trades during that one minute at 21:30.
I won’t guess crypto prices—just the data. Do you think tomorrow’s PPI will come in higher or lower than last month’s? We’ll check once the report is out tomorrow night.
Follow me for advance explanations of how to read macro data and same-day number checks. I don’t turn inflation data into buy or sell recommendations.
Factory-gate prices jumped 1.3% last month. Will tomorrow night’s report show another surge?
We’ve seen the CPI. Tomorrow night (Friday, November 13), another inflation report is due at 21:30 Beijing time: the U.S. October PPI (Producer Price Index). The BLS schedule confirms it will be released at 08:30 Eastern Time.
First, just how strong was the last report? (September data released by the BLS on October 15):
- Final demand PPI rose 1.3% month over month, the biggest increase since March 2022 (+1.7%);
- The unadjusted year-over-year increase was 6.3%, the highest since December 2022;
- Goods prices rose 2.6% month over month, the biggest increase since this data series began in December 2009. More than 80% of the increase came from energy (+10.8%), with gasoline alone up 20.3%;
- “Core” PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.5% month over month and 5.0% year over year.
How does PPI differ from CPI? CPI measures what you pay at the supermarket; PPI measures what businesses charge for the goods and services they sell, upstream from CPI. October CPI, released Tuesday, rose 0.4% month over month (after +0.6% in September), with energy up just 0.7% (after +5.2% in September). Energy inflation has cooled for consumers. Tomorrow night, we’ll see whether that’s also true at the factory gate.
What to watch tomorrow night: just 3 numbers:
1. Headline month-over-month change: How much has it cooled from September’s +1.3%?
2. Energy component: September was +10.8%. If CPI energy is up just 0.7% while PPI energy is still surging, that suggests upstream cost pressures have yet to fully pass through.
3. Core (excluding food, energy, and trade services): September was +0.5% month over month and +5.0% year over year. If the headline improves because oil prices have fallen but core doesn’t cool, that tells us more than the headline alone.
Two easy pitfalls to avoid:
- The previous figures can be revised. This time, the BLS revised data for May–August. When comparing tomorrow night’s figures, use the revised September value in the new table—not the old +1.3% figure.
- Volatility and spreads can widen in the minutes before and after the release. If you’re using leverage, reduce your position in advance and set your stop-loss. Don’t chase trades during that one minute at 21:30.
I won’t guess crypto prices—just the data. Do you think tomorrow’s PPI will come in higher or lower than last month’s? We’ll check once the report is out tomorrow night.
Follow me for advance explanations of how to read macro data and same-day number checks. I don’t turn inflation data into buy or sell recommendations.
