The early-session selloff candle left two figures: volume was about 1.54 million tokens, and the low was 0.6070 USDT. The next two 4-hour candles each saw volume of only a little over 600,000 tokens. The high fell from 0.6269 to 0.6243, while the low also slipped from 0.6163 to 0.6124. On Binance spot, ETHFI was quoted at 0.6192 USDT, down 3.114% over the rolling 24 hours. The early-session low is still some way off, but the afternoon closing price is moving toward it. I’d interpret this drop in volume as both buyers and sellers slowing down; we’ll have to wait for the price to find a direction on its own.

For tonight’s trading, you can treat 0.6243 to 0.6269 as a resistance zone. The 4-hour EMA20 is around 0.6233, very close to the lower edge of that zone. Even if the price touches the moving average intraday, the highs of the two candles are still overhead. If a full 4-hour candle closes above 0.6269, check whether volume exceeds the average of about 1.15 million tokens across the last 20 completed candles, then see if volume falls on a retest and whether the close holds above the level. Only consider a small position if it holds. Above that, watch the daily EMA50 around 0.6351 and the early-session high of 0.6400. If the price is already near the first resistance when confirmation comes, wait for a retest to leave room for a move. If, after breaking out, a full candle closes back below 0.6269, exit the test position opened on the breakout.

Conversely, there is an afternoon low near 0.6124 and the 4-hour EMA50 is around 0.6123. If price closes below this area, attention shifts to 0.6070. A full 4-hour candle closing below 0.6070 invalidates the rebound plan based on the morning low, and the test position should be exited. If a subsequent rebound also fails to recover that level, wait for the next downswing and rebound to play out, then mark the new support. The lowest price among the seven most recently closed daily candles is 0.5111, far from current levels; using it to set an exit price for a short-term position could greatly increase risk.

The 4-hour ATR14 is about 0.0187 USDT, calculated as the arithmetic average of the true ranges of the fourteen most recently closed candles, including gaps between the highs and lows and the previous close. The distance from the current price to the morning low is less than this figure. For futures, wait for the candle to close and size the position based on the actual exit distance, while allowing room for slippage. If tonight's close is still between the high and low of the afternoon candle, I'll wait until the next candle to review volume and decide on the position.

#行情分析 $ETHFI