73,510 has been breached intraday, and I’m not treating the area around 72,727 as a bottom either: BTC ETFs saw nearly $1.88 billion in net outflows during November’s first eight trading days
Last time, I said the new low of 73,510 needed to hold, and that until it did, I wouldn’t consider the price level at the time to be a confirmed bottom. As it turned out, late on 11/10 into the early hours of 11/11 (Taipei time), BTC first hit 72,866 at 23:44, then fell to 72,727 at 00:37. That intraday level has now been breached. But to be clear: the daily candle closed at 73,796 on 11/10 and 74,015 on 11/11, so neither day closed below 73,510. Many people treat a “wick down and recovery” as proof that the level has held. I pay closer attention to whether money is flowing back in.
Binance spot data (11/12, 19:19 Taipei time): BTC is around 73,352, down 0.9% over 24 hours, with a range of 73,260–74,811; ETH is around 2,043 (-0.9%); SOL is around 82.86 (-1.2%). Looking at Binance’s UTC weekly candles (which open and close at 08:00 Monday Taipei time), last week (the week of 11/2) opened at 78,354 and closed at 74,851, down about 4.5%. Its low was 73,510, marking the fifth consecutive weekly red candle. This week opened at 74,851, reached a high of 75,599 and a low of 72,727, and is currently down about 2.0%. The current price is only about 0.9% above 72,727. Over the same period, ETH is down about 4.0% and SOL about 4.3%. The 11/4 high was 81,196, putting the current price about 9.7% below it.
The flows haven’t provided support either. Farside data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a combined net outflow of about $1.878 billion over November’s first eight trading days (11/2–11/11). Of those eight days, only 11/4 saw a net inflow—$74.6 million—while the other seven days all had net outflows. Since my last post, there was a $201 million net outflow on 11/9 (IBIT: -$213.2 million), a $95 million net outflow on 11/10 (IBIT: -$78.2 million), and another $299.8 million net outflow on 11/11 (IBIT: -$269.7 million). That’s about $596 million in outflows over three days, with IBIT still the main driver. There have now been five consecutive trading days of net outflows since 11/5. In the futures market, BTC perpetual funding rates over the past several periods (since the evening of 11/9) have ranged from +0.003% to +0.010%. They hit 0.010% for four consecutive periods from the evening of 11/9 through 11/10, then eased to 0.003%–0.008%. Overall, rates are slightly positive and close to neutral. At least based on funding rates, there’s no clear crowding on the short side.
What does this mean? (The following is my own interpretation.)
After 73,510 was breached intraday, no fresh wave of buying came in to keep the price firmly above it. The daily close has only temporarily returned above that level, while ETF money is still flowing out. A wick down followed by a recovery doesn’t mean the bottom is confirmed. Until money starts flowing back in, I won’t treat the area around 72,727 as a new bottom.
My view: I won’t consider the area around 72,727 a confirmed new bottom. I’m watching for three things next: a daily close holding above 72,727 and a move back above 74,851 (last week’s close and this week’s open); at least one clear day of net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs, with IBIT no longer the main source of outflows; and, for a stronger reversal, a move back above 78,354 (last week’s open). Until these things happen, my view is that weakness is continuing, not that a reversal is beginning. If 72,727 breaks, I’ll look for support further down rather than treating it as a confirmed bottom. These are just my own observation thresholds, not trading signals.
With rules like “what conditions would make me change my view,” the biggest risk is changing your story after the fact. @OfficialOwl_AI’s OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Strategy vaults have been deployed across multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc deployments in progress. Strategy managers can turn this kind of view into a public strategy that can be verified on-chain. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holder addresses. You can Follow managers you’re interested in, Star their strategies, and then decide whether to Subscribe.
I’m involved with OWL
Do you think BTC will hold 72,727 and move up, or does it still need to look for support lower down?
This is only my personal opinion. Please manage your position size and risk.
#BTC #比特币ETF #ETF Fund Flows
Last time, I said the new low of 73,510 needed to hold, and that until it did, I wouldn’t consider the price level at the time to be a confirmed bottom. As it turned out, late on 11/10 into the early hours of 11/11 (Taipei time), BTC first hit 72,866 at 23:44, then fell to 72,727 at 00:37. That intraday level has now been breached. But to be clear: the daily candle closed at 73,796 on 11/10 and 74,015 on 11/11, so neither day closed below 73,510. Many people treat a “wick down and recovery” as proof that the level has held. I pay closer attention to whether money is flowing back in.
Binance spot data (11/12, 19:19 Taipei time): BTC is around 73,352, down 0.9% over 24 hours, with a range of 73,260–74,811; ETH is around 2,043 (-0.9%); SOL is around 82.86 (-1.2%). Looking at Binance’s UTC weekly candles (which open and close at 08:00 Monday Taipei time), last week (the week of 11/2) opened at 78,354 and closed at 74,851, down about 4.5%. Its low was 73,510, marking the fifth consecutive weekly red candle. This week opened at 74,851, reached a high of 75,599 and a low of 72,727, and is currently down about 2.0%. The current price is only about 0.9% above 72,727. Over the same period, ETH is down about 4.0% and SOL about 4.3%. The 11/4 high was 81,196, putting the current price about 9.7% below it.
The flows haven’t provided support either. Farside data shows that U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a combined net outflow of about $1.878 billion over November’s first eight trading days (11/2–11/11). Of those eight days, only 11/4 saw a net inflow—$74.6 million—while the other seven days all had net outflows. Since my last post, there was a $201 million net outflow on 11/9 (IBIT: -$213.2 million), a $95 million net outflow on 11/10 (IBIT: -$78.2 million), and another $299.8 million net outflow on 11/11 (IBIT: -$269.7 million). That’s about $596 million in outflows over three days, with IBIT still the main driver. There have now been five consecutive trading days of net outflows since 11/5. In the futures market, BTC perpetual funding rates over the past several periods (since the evening of 11/9) have ranged from +0.003% to +0.010%. They hit 0.010% for four consecutive periods from the evening of 11/9 through 11/10, then eased to 0.003%–0.008%. Overall, rates are slightly positive and close to neutral. At least based on funding rates, there’s no clear crowding on the short side.
What does this mean? (The following is my own interpretation.)
After 73,510 was breached intraday, no fresh wave of buying came in to keep the price firmly above it. The daily close has only temporarily returned above that level, while ETF money is still flowing out. A wick down followed by a recovery doesn’t mean the bottom is confirmed. Until money starts flowing back in, I won’t treat the area around 72,727 as a new bottom.
My view: I won’t consider the area around 72,727 a confirmed new bottom. I’m watching for three things next: a daily close holding above 72,727 and a move back above 74,851 (last week’s close and this week’s open); at least one clear day of net inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs, with IBIT no longer the main source of outflows; and, for a stronger reversal, a move back above 78,354 (last week’s open). Until these things happen, my view is that weakness is continuing, not that a reversal is beginning. If 72,727 breaks, I’ll look for support further down rather than treating it as a confirmed bottom. These are just my own observation thresholds, not trading signals.
With rules like “what conditions would make me change my view,” the biggest risk is changing your story after the fact. @OfficialOwl_AI’s OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering U.S. stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities. Strategy vaults have been deployed across multiple EVM networks, with Robinhood Chain and Arc deployments in progress. Strategy managers can turn this kind of view into a public strategy that can be verified on-chain. As of 10/31, TVL was 7,528,536 USDC, with 4,620 holder addresses. You can Follow managers you’re interested in, Star their strategies, and then decide whether to Subscribe.
I’m involved with OWL
Do you think BTC will hold 72,727 and move up, or does it still need to look for support lower down?
This is only my personal opinion. Please manage your position size and risk.
#BTC #比特币ETF #ETF Fund Flows
