Today's Crypto Brief | November 12
Evening, folks!! The market spent the day just “killing time until the U.S. market opens”—tonight is the main event~
1️⃣ Prices: I just checked CoinGecko: Bitcoin is around 73,300 (down about 1% over 24h). It peaked around 74,700 intraday and bottomed around 73,200; down about 8.7% over the week. ETH is around 2,041 (down about 1% on the day), with a low around 2,036—getting closer to 2,000. The weekly drop is even steeper, at about 15.5%. BNB is around 668 (down about 2% on the day), and SOL is around 83. The total crypto market cap is around $2.43 trillion, down about 3.5% over 24h. The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, still in fear territory~
My take: It briefly got close to 74,700 this morning, then got ground back down. Don’t call it a reversal just because it hasn’t broken below 72,700 from a couple of days ago, haha.
2️⃣ The biggest thing tonight is still whether U.S. stocks can withstand this Nvidia hit!!! You saw that after-hours hit during the day too. The board discussed it, but the company still hasn’t officially announced the outcome (CNBC). In premarket trading this morning, U.S. time: Yahoo Finance reported Nasdaq futures down about 0.7%, S&P futures down about 0.3%, and Dow futures still slightly in the green, up about 0.1%; Nvidia was still getting hammered, down about 5.6% premarket. Reuters reported roughly the same figures around the same time: Nasdaq futures down about 0.64%, Nvidia down about 6%; CoreWeave surged about 25% during the day, then gave back about 6% in premarket trading.
My take: Don’t assume that because the Nasdaq rallied during the day, Bitcoin is about to take off~ First let’s see whether the market can digest this hit tonight.
3️⃣ Institutional flows are still bleeding out: You saw it this afternoon too—according to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $300 million on November 11, while ETH ETFs saw about $145 million in outflows. That makes five consecutive trading days for both. CoinDesk added this morning that including funds such as ZEC and SOL, U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw total outflows of about $465 million that day.
My take: Until real buying returns, don’t chase the initial bounce.
4️⃣ One more thing: Risk assets are all soft today. CoinDesk noted that gold fell more than 1.5% over the past 24 hours, dropping back below $4,000. Rate-hike expectations are still firm—ChainCatcher relayed Cointelegraph’s CME FedWatch figures this evening: a 25-basis-point hike in December is priced at about 90.8%, a 50-basis-point hike at about 9.2%, and almost no chance of rates staying unchanged is priced in.
My take: Stop fantasizing that “U.S. stocks will send Bitcoin soaring as soon as they open”—that’s not the whole story!!!
5️⃣ What to watch tonight: At 21:30 Shanghai time, the economic calendar has weekly initial jobless claims; at 22:30, the U.S. stock market officially opens, with Nvidia and the Nasdaq in focus. Tomorrow at the same time, 21:30, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October PPI (it’s already on the official schedule).
My take: Don’t go wild with leverage ahead of the data. Watch it first, then make your move—that’s it!!!
Overall: Fear is still here, institutions are still selling, rate hikes are almost fully priced in, and the market hasn’t finished digesting the Nvidia hit. I’m not chasing this bounce; I’ll first see how U.S. stocks absorb it tonight, then make plans as things unfold~
What do you think—when U.S. stocks open tonight, will Bitcoin hold 73,000 first, or will it dip lower again?
$BTC $ETH
#加密快报 #Crypto
Evening, folks!! The market spent the day just “killing time until the U.S. market opens”—tonight is the main event~
1️⃣ Prices: I just checked CoinGecko: Bitcoin is around 73,300 (down about 1% over 24h). It peaked around 74,700 intraday and bottomed around 73,200; down about 8.7% over the week. ETH is around 2,041 (down about 1% on the day), with a low around 2,036—getting closer to 2,000. The weekly drop is even steeper, at about 15.5%. BNB is around 668 (down about 2% on the day), and SOL is around 83. The total crypto market cap is around $2.43 trillion, down about 3.5% over 24h. The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, still in fear territory~
My take: It briefly got close to 74,700 this morning, then got ground back down. Don’t call it a reversal just because it hasn’t broken below 72,700 from a couple of days ago, haha.
2️⃣ The biggest thing tonight is still whether U.S. stocks can withstand this Nvidia hit!!! You saw that after-hours hit during the day too. The board discussed it, but the company still hasn’t officially announced the outcome (CNBC). In premarket trading this morning, U.S. time: Yahoo Finance reported Nasdaq futures down about 0.7%, S&P futures down about 0.3%, and Dow futures still slightly in the green, up about 0.1%; Nvidia was still getting hammered, down about 5.6% premarket. Reuters reported roughly the same figures around the same time: Nasdaq futures down about 0.64%, Nvidia down about 6%; CoreWeave surged about 25% during the day, then gave back about 6% in premarket trading.
My take: Don’t assume that because the Nasdaq rallied during the day, Bitcoin is about to take off~ First let’s see whether the market can digest this hit tonight.
3️⃣ Institutional flows are still bleeding out: You saw it this afternoon too—according to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $300 million on November 11, while ETH ETFs saw about $145 million in outflows. That makes five consecutive trading days for both. CoinDesk added this morning that including funds such as ZEC and SOL, U.S. spot crypto ETFs saw total outflows of about $465 million that day.
My take: Until real buying returns, don’t chase the initial bounce.
4️⃣ One more thing: Risk assets are all soft today. CoinDesk noted that gold fell more than 1.5% over the past 24 hours, dropping back below $4,000. Rate-hike expectations are still firm—ChainCatcher relayed Cointelegraph’s CME FedWatch figures this evening: a 25-basis-point hike in December is priced at about 90.8%, a 50-basis-point hike at about 9.2%, and almost no chance of rates staying unchanged is priced in.
My take: Stop fantasizing that “U.S. stocks will send Bitcoin soaring as soon as they open”—that’s not the whole story!!!
5️⃣ What to watch tonight: At 21:30 Shanghai time, the economic calendar has weekly initial jobless claims; at 22:30, the U.S. stock market officially opens, with Nvidia and the Nasdaq in focus. Tomorrow at the same time, 21:30, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October PPI (it’s already on the official schedule).
My take: Don’t go wild with leverage ahead of the data. Watch it first, then make your move—that’s it!!!
Overall: Fear is still here, institutions are still selling, rate hikes are almost fully priced in, and the market hasn’t finished digesting the Nvidia hit. I’m not chasing this bounce; I’ll first see how U.S. stocks absorb it tonight, then make plans as things unfold~
What do you think—when U.S. stocks open tonight, will Bitcoin hold 73,000 first, or will it dip lower again?
$BTC $ETH
#加密快报 #Crypto