Russia can’t be worn down, Iran can’t be defeated—what choice will the United States make?

This is my assessment of the current geopolitical situations involving Russia and Ukraine, and the United States and Iran. For the United States, these two geopolitical wars are a “balancing act” that it needs to weigh carefully.

“Using the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to wear Russia down and weaken its military and economic strength” is a shared goal of the Democrats and the Republican establishment, while the Republican Party led by Trump hopes to promote negotiations. #黄仁勋再被曝与下属婚外情，或遭董事会罢免

The war against Iran, on the other hand, is a mistaken choice by Trump, intended to showcase America’s military strength and ability to exert control in the Middle East.

The U.S.-Iran situation is currently in a temporary phase of “silence.” Behind this silence lie more complex diplomatic maneuvering and calculations. In particular, with the APEC trilateral summit of Chinese, U.S., and Russian leaders approaching, it could well pave the way for Russia and Ukraine to return to negotiations. I believe this will directly affect America’s next military deployments and investment in its military.

Whether under a Democratic or Republican administration, modern U.S. presidents have understood one thing: America needs to scale back and exercise restraint in its global military posture. Its military and financial resources are insufficient to sustain operations across multiple geopolitical fronts. So the question of “who” to target has become a major strategic battleground at home. Democrats and Republican establishment figures wanted to use the war in Ukraine to wear Russia down, but that has clearly failed. Trump’s attempt to rally the Middle East has failed too. Now both sides are back at the same starting line.

So, during the period of silence ahead, if Russia and Ukraine move toward peace talks, the United States may focus more on applying military and economic pressure on Iran. Conversely, if the war in Ukraine remains deadlocked, the United States will have to disengage from the Middle East. Otherwise, the military and financial burden of fighting on two fronts will be more than the current U.S. government can bear.

In particular, Democrats have pushed for Congress to further restrict defense spending, potentially forcing Trump to choose between the two!

By this logic, to understand where U.S.-Iran relations are headed, we first need to see what direction the trilateral summit of Chinese, U.S., and Russian leaders this month sets for the war in Ukraine!