Evening recap: Wednesday’s ETF flows are out—outflows for the fifth day in a row, and they accelerated again this time. At 19:00, $BTC was about $73,398, down 0.7% over 24 hours; $ETH was about $2,043, down 0.7% over 24 hours (live CoinGecko data).
The most important numbers tonight: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $299.8 million in net outflows on Wednesday (November 11) (Farside data, reported by CoinDesk/TradingView), marking the fifth consecutive trading day of outflows and bringing the five-day total to about $1.44 billion. The details are even more telling: BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $269.7 million in outflows, accounting for 90% of the day’s total. It has now seen net redemptions for nine consecutive trading days, totaling over $2 billion in nine days. Grayscale’s GBTC saw $39.1 million in outflows; the only fund with net inflows was Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, at +$9 million. ETH ETFs also saw $144.8 million in outflows on the same day. In other words: the hoped-for reversal didn’t come; instead, outflows ballooned from Tuesday’s $95 million to $300 million—and the money was mostly pulled from a single fund. These are client redemptions, not BlackRock selling coins itself. Bitfinex put it plainly today, too: slowing outflows could be the first step toward a bottom, but that alone isn’t enough.
Short position update #39: Short opened November 7 at 13:00 in the 75,800–76,100 range, with a median entry of 75,950; current price is 73,398, down 3.36%. On 100x margin, the remaining half has an unrealized paper gain of about +336%—it was +319% at 17:00, so it’s widened a little further. The added short (median entry 74,850) has an unrealized gain of about +194% (it was +176% at 17:00). Half was already taken off at target one, 73,200: +362% on the original position and +220% on the added short. Those are realized gains, not unrealized. Honestly, this trade is in profit now. The stop at 77,500 and the invalidation level of a 4-hour close above 76,250 have both remained untouched.
Two more things to watch tonight: if the 20:00 4-hour candle closes below 75,000, it will be the 22nd consecutive one; the daily close will be the third test of the 200-day moving average (about $73,117–$73,206), with the current price only about $200 above it. ETH is at $2,043, with support at $2,030–$2,035 still holding, about $43 above the $2,000 level.
Tomorrow at 21:30 is the week’s final hurdle: U.S. October PPI. The market expects +0.4% month over month and +6.6% year over year (September was +1.3%/+6.3%), with core PPI at +0.3% month over month and about 5.0% year over year (Dow Jones survey, via TradingKey/Continuum Economics). The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is about 90.8%, versus about 9.2% for a 50-basis-point hike (CME FedWatch). Also, 33,902 BTC options expire that day, with a max pain price of $77,000. I won’t trade for an hour before or after the data.
SEPPUKU just topped the trending searches, up 12% in a day, with a market cap of only $17.5 million—just a sentiment gauge, not something I’m touching. JCT is down 44% in a day, having given back almost all of its November 8 rally of +377%. ZEC is essentially flat today at -0.01%; the privacy coin selloff has finally taken a breather, but it’s still below $1,000.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding the remaining half, with target two at 68,000; a rebound to 75,300–75,500 is still my area to add to the short; if it breaks below 71,500 and can’t reclaim it on a 4-hour close, I won’t chase the short—I’ll hold and wait for 68,000; I’ll only consider going long again if it reclaims 78,000 and holds there. I’m using 100x margin on only a very small portion of my total capital.
Five straight days of ETF outflows, with $300 million in a single day—do you think this is the final wave, or will there be another one before tomorrow’s PPI? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 19:00 Beijing time on November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours)
The most important numbers tonight: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $299.8 million in net outflows on Wednesday (November 11) (Farside data, reported by CoinDesk/TradingView), marking the fifth consecutive trading day of outflows and bringing the five-day total to about $1.44 billion. The details are even more telling: BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $269.7 million in outflows, accounting for 90% of the day’s total. It has now seen net redemptions for nine consecutive trading days, totaling over $2 billion in nine days. Grayscale’s GBTC saw $39.1 million in outflows; the only fund with net inflows was Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, at +$9 million. ETH ETFs also saw $144.8 million in outflows on the same day. In other words: the hoped-for reversal didn’t come; instead, outflows ballooned from Tuesday’s $95 million to $300 million—and the money was mostly pulled from a single fund. These are client redemptions, not BlackRock selling coins itself. Bitfinex put it plainly today, too: slowing outflows could be the first step toward a bottom, but that alone isn’t enough.
Short position update #39: Short opened November 7 at 13:00 in the 75,800–76,100 range, with a median entry of 75,950; current price is 73,398, down 3.36%. On 100x margin, the remaining half has an unrealized paper gain of about +336%—it was +319% at 17:00, so it’s widened a little further. The added short (median entry 74,850) has an unrealized gain of about +194% (it was +176% at 17:00). Half was already taken off at target one, 73,200: +362% on the original position and +220% on the added short. Those are realized gains, not unrealized. Honestly, this trade is in profit now. The stop at 77,500 and the invalidation level of a 4-hour close above 76,250 have both remained untouched.
Two more things to watch tonight: if the 20:00 4-hour candle closes below 75,000, it will be the 22nd consecutive one; the daily close will be the third test of the 200-day moving average (about $73,117–$73,206), with the current price only about $200 above it. ETH is at $2,043, with support at $2,030–$2,035 still holding, about $43 above the $2,000 level.
Tomorrow at 21:30 is the week’s final hurdle: U.S. October PPI. The market expects +0.4% month over month and +6.6% year over year (September was +1.3%/+6.3%), with core PPI at +0.3% month over month and about 5.0% year over year (Dow Jones survey, via TradingKey/Continuum Economics). The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is about 90.8%, versus about 9.2% for a 50-basis-point hike (CME FedWatch). Also, 33,902 BTC options expire that day, with a max pain price of $77,000. I won’t trade for an hour before or after the data.
SEPPUKU just topped the trending searches, up 12% in a day, with a market cap of only $17.5 million—just a sentiment gauge, not something I’m touching. JCT is down 44% in a day, having given back almost all of its November 8 rally of +377%. ZEC is essentially flat today at -0.01%; the privacy coin selloff has finally taken a breather, but it’s still below $1,000.
The plan is unchanged: keep holding the remaining half, with target two at 68,000; a rebound to 75,300–75,500 is still my area to add to the short; if it breaks below 71,500 and can’t reclaim it on a 4-hour close, I won’t chase the short—I’ll hold and wait for 68,000; I’ll only consider going long again if it reclaims 78,000 and holds there. I’m using 100x margin on only a very small portion of my total capital.
Five straight days of ETF outflows, with $300 million in a single day—do you think this is the final wave, or will there be another one before tomorrow’s PPI? Let’s discuss in the comments. (Prices: live CoinGecko data at 19:00 Beijing time on November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours)
