Bitcoin looks like it has stabilized, but really it's paying for insurance while trading sideways.
$BTC is now around $73,478, and it has spent three days grinding between $73,400 and $74,800, barely moving in the past 24 hours.
But among Deribit options expiring November 12–27, put volume is 1.5 times call volume. Eight of the 10 most active contracts are puts, concentrated at strike prices of $69,000–$74,000. The most-traded contract is a $69,000 put expiring November 27.
The implied volatility of 25-delta puts is 4–5 points higher than that of calls, so buyers have to pay a higher premium for downside protection.
Spot ETFs saw another $299.8 million in net outflows on November 11, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $269.7 million. The day before, outflows were just $95 million—so the “narrowing outflows” lasted only one day.
My take: spot prices staying flat doesn't mean nobody is worried about a drop; those who are worried have simply gone to the options market to pay for protection.
The key is the other side: the largest open interest in calls expiring Friday is still at far-out strikes like $81,000 and $84,000. Call buyers are betting far out, while put buyers are betting closer in. The market isn't really pricing in a direction—it's pricing in a $69,000–$74,000 box.
Keep an eye on three things next: whether the November 27 $69,000 put expires worthless or is exercised; whether ETF outflows keep growing or turn positive; and whether $72,000 holds—if it breaks, watch $70,000.
Are you holding your spot positions through this, or have you bought insurance too? Which side do you think this box will break toward first?
#比特币 #期权市场 #ETF Fund Flows
The above is a compilation of market information only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC is now around $73,478, and it has spent three days grinding between $73,400 and $74,800, barely moving in the past 24 hours.
But among Deribit options expiring November 12–27, put volume is 1.5 times call volume. Eight of the 10 most active contracts are puts, concentrated at strike prices of $69,000–$74,000. The most-traded contract is a $69,000 put expiring November 27.
The implied volatility of 25-delta puts is 4–5 points higher than that of calls, so buyers have to pay a higher premium for downside protection.
Spot ETFs saw another $299.8 million in net outflows on November 11, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $269.7 million. The day before, outflows were just $95 million—so the “narrowing outflows” lasted only one day.
My take: spot prices staying flat doesn't mean nobody is worried about a drop; those who are worried have simply gone to the options market to pay for protection.
The key is the other side: the largest open interest in calls expiring Friday is still at far-out strikes like $81,000 and $84,000. Call buyers are betting far out, while put buyers are betting closer in. The market isn't really pricing in a direction—it's pricing in a $69,000–$74,000 box.
Keep an eye on three things next: whether the November 27 $69,000 put expires worthless or is exercised; whether ETF outflows keep growing or turn positive; and whether $72,000 holds—if it breaks, watch $70,000.
Are you holding your spot positions through this, or have you bought insurance too? Which side do you think this box will break toward first?
#比特币 #期权市场 #ETF Fund Flows
The above is a compilation of market information only and does not constitute investment advice.