224.4 USDT is a one-candle low on the BCH chart: it is both the rolling 24-hour low and the lowest price among the most recent seven and thirty closed daily candles. The four-hour candle that opened at 4 a.m. fell from 232.0 to that level, then recovered to close at 228.4. By the afternoon, Binance spot data showed 228.1 USDT, down 0.48% over the rolling 24 hours. Price has returned to near the close of that long-wick candle, giving back a large part of the morning rebound. For now, I’d watch another candle’s closing price, especially around 226.5—the daily low from two days ago, still between the current price and 224.4.

Looking back from the lower wick, the morning and midday highs were 230.6 and 230.7, respectively; neither reached the 232.0 open of the early-morning selloff candle. The morning candle closed at 230.4, while the midday close slipped to 228.8, even as volume edged up from about 2,100 to 2,260 coins. Average volume across the most recent twenty closed four-hour candles is about 4,500 coins. Even if price pushes back up to 230.7 intraday, I’d wait for the candle to finish if volume is still around the morning’s level. This resistance has held twice already. The change worth watching is whether, after a close above it, the next candle can hold it as support.

I’ll consider a starter position on the upside if a complete 4-hour candle closes above 230.7 on higher-than-average volume, with volume exceeding the average of the previous twenty candles, followed by a low-volume pullback that closes and holds above that level. If that happens, I’ll consider a small position targeting the 232.6 early-morning high and the rolling daily high at 234.1. The 4-hour EMA20, around 235.5, is still above the daily high and acting as resistance. After confirmation, if the entry price is already near 232.6, I’ll recalculate the distance to the first resistance. If a later full candle closes back below 230.7, I’ll exit the breakout trade.

On the downside, if price first closes below 226.5, I’ll watch whether a rebound can close back above it. If it can’t reclaim that level, I’ll keep watching 224.4. A complete 4-hour candle breaking below and closing under 224.4 would invalidate the rebound plan based on the early-morning lower wick, and I’d exit any existing starter position. Then I’ll wait for a new low and a rebound high to form before deciding on the next trade. The 4-hour ATR14 is about 4.33 USDT, calculated as the arithmetic mean of the true ranges of the fourteen completed candles, including gaps between each candle’s high/low and the previous close. The current price is still less than that distance from the old low. I size a futures position by working backward from the exit distance and slippage; if that distance only makes the trade viable by moving the exit line into the lower wick, I can skip the trade.

#行情分析 $BCH