As the FIL 4-hour candle moved lower around midday, volume was about 35% higher than in the morning session, yet it closed at just 0.7467 USDT. During the afternoon, the price returned to 0.7511, while still down 1.482% over 24 hours. The rebound briefly rose above the midday high of 0.7529, then fell back by the time the data was captured. Chasing this move on the intraday chart can make it easy to mistake those trades that pushed through as evidence that buyers are willing to take on supply at higher prices. I’d wait for this candle to close, then see which side of the midday high it ends up on.

I’ve marked 0.7424 and 0.7409 on the chart. The first is the midday low; the second is the rolling daily low left by that dip in the early hours. These two levels are close together. If the 4-hour candle closes below 0.7409, I’ll exit the trial position taken on the basis of support at the daily low. If the rebound can’t hold above 0.7424 either, the next level to watch below is 0.7313, the low of a daily candle that closed two days ago. Below that, 0.7189 is the shared low of the last seven and thirty completed daily candles. There’s another support level on the chart, but the position in hand still needs to be managed according to the original exit level.

This is a good place to calculate the contract size first. The 4-hour ATR(14) is about 0.0169 USDT, calculated as the arithmetic mean of the true ranges of the most recent fourteen closed candles, including gaps between each candle’s high/low and the previous close. The midday low is only 0.0015 USDT away from the rolling daily low, so even a brief intraday move could break through. If you plan to wait for a 4-hour confirmation before exiting, your position needs to allow for volatility before the candle closes and for slippage. Using the price gap between the two lows as the stop distance can easily lead you to size the position too large.

There are two hurdles on the way up for this rebound. The morning rally reached 0.7583 before turning back, and the 4-hour EMA20, around 0.7642, is above it. To improve the odds of the rebound continuing, I’d wait for a full 4-hour candle to close above 0.7583 on increased volume—more than the average of about 1.17 million tokens across the most recent twenty closed candles—then see whether a pullback can hold on lower volume. The midday breakdown candle saw about 990,000 tokens in volume, so for a recovery I’d want to see at least one candle close with stronger volume than that. Consider a small position only after price holds above the morning high. First see whether it can stabilize near the moving average; if it opens up more room, then look toward the rolling daily high at 0.7828. For a position taken on the breakout, exit if a subsequent 4-hour candle closes back below 0.7583. If the confirmation price is already close to the short-term moving average, I’d wait until after the pullback before sizing this trade.

#行情分析 $FIL