16:00 options expiry recap: Max pain didn't pull prices; my short position's unrealized profit shrank slightly, but I'm still in the green.
At 17:00, $BTC was about $73,531, down 0.17% in 24 hours; $ETH was about $2,048, down 0.40% in 24 hours (CoinGecko spot prices). The batch of 2,380 BTC options expired at 16:00 this afternoon. Max pain was $74,500, about $970 above the current price—but prices weren't pulled upward before or after expiry. Instead, they moved sideways around $73,500. The 16:00 four-hour candle closed at about $73,568, the 21st consecutive close below $75,000 (since 08:00 on November 9). The so-called “expiry pin” didn't materialize this time, and the bearish structure remains intact.
The 200-day moving average is around $73,117–$73,206, with the current price only about $330 above it. The November 11 and 12 closes held above it, and tonight is the decisive third test. $ETH is at $2,048, about $48 from the round-number $2,000 level, with support at $2,030–$2,035 still holding.
Short position tracking #38: Opened shorts at $75,800–$76,100 at 13:00 on November 7, with a $75,950 average entry. At the current price of $73,531, the price is down 3.19%, leaving about +319% unrealized profit on half the position, based on 100x margin. At 15:00, it was +341%, so the profit has shrunk a little—that's the honest truth. The added short (average entry $74,850) is up about +176% (it was +199% at 15:00). Half the position at target one, $73,200, has already been taken off the table (original position +362%, added short +220%); that profit is realized. The $77,500 stop-loss and the invalidation level—a four-hour close above $76,250—haven't been hit. Holding, with a target of $68,000.
The plan hasn't changed: still bearish. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 is still a spot to add shorts; if we break below $71,500 and can't reclaim it on a four-hour close, don't chase shorts—hold and wait for $68,000. Only consider flipping long if we reclaim $78,000 and hold above it. With 100x margin, I'm using only a very small portion of my total capital. Tonight, watch Wednesday's ETF flows (will it be a fifth straight day of outflows, or a reversal?). Tomorrow at 21:30, U.S. October PPI and the expiry of 33,902 BTC options (max pain at $77,000) are the week's final hurdles. INIT is still down 53% and PEPE around 15% in the trending searches; small coins are just a sentiment gauge—not touching them. Do you think the daily candle can hold above the 200-day moving average for a third time tonight? Let's discuss in the comments. (Prices: CoinGecko spot prices at 17:00 Beijing time on November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
At 17:00, $BTC was about $73,531, down 0.17% in 24 hours; $ETH was about $2,048, down 0.40% in 24 hours (CoinGecko spot prices). The batch of 2,380 BTC options expired at 16:00 this afternoon. Max pain was $74,500, about $970 above the current price—but prices weren't pulled upward before or after expiry. Instead, they moved sideways around $73,500. The 16:00 four-hour candle closed at about $73,568, the 21st consecutive close below $75,000 (since 08:00 on November 9). The so-called “expiry pin” didn't materialize this time, and the bearish structure remains intact.
The 200-day moving average is around $73,117–$73,206, with the current price only about $330 above it. The November 11 and 12 closes held above it, and tonight is the decisive third test. $ETH is at $2,048, about $48 from the round-number $2,000 level, with support at $2,030–$2,035 still holding.
Short position tracking #38: Opened shorts at $75,800–$76,100 at 13:00 on November 7, with a $75,950 average entry. At the current price of $73,531, the price is down 3.19%, leaving about +319% unrealized profit on half the position, based on 100x margin. At 15:00, it was +341%, so the profit has shrunk a little—that's the honest truth. The added short (average entry $74,850) is up about +176% (it was +199% at 15:00). Half the position at target one, $73,200, has already been taken off the table (original position +362%, added short +220%); that profit is realized. The $77,500 stop-loss and the invalidation level—a four-hour close above $76,250—haven't been hit. Holding, with a target of $68,000.
The plan hasn't changed: still bearish. A rebound to $75,300–$75,500 is still a spot to add shorts; if we break below $71,500 and can't reclaim it on a four-hour close, don't chase shorts—hold and wait for $68,000. Only consider flipping long if we reclaim $78,000 and hold above it. With 100x margin, I'm using only a very small portion of my total capital. Tonight, watch Wednesday's ETF flows (will it be a fifth straight day of outflows, or a reversal?). Tomorrow at 21:30, U.S. October PPI and the expiry of 33,902 BTC options (max pain at $77,000) are the week's final hurdles. INIT is still down 53% and PEPE around 15% in the trending searches; small coins are just a sentiment gauge—not touching them. Do you think the daily candle can hold above the 200-day moving average for a third time tonight? Let's discuss in the comments. (Prices: CoinGecko spot prices at 17:00 Beijing time on November 12; chart shows the past 24 hours.)
