“The probability that Jensen Huang stays on is down to just 11%”—don’t rush to share a chart like this before checking which market it comes from.
The succession odds making the rounds today should be for Polymarket’s “Next CEO of NVIDIA” market. It settles on January 1, 2029. The platform shows total trading volume of just over $100,000 for the entire event, with about $22,600 traded on “No Change” (meaning Jensen Huang stays on). When I checked at 4 p.m. today, the price was 18%, not 11%. In a market with only tens of thousands of dollars in volume, one or two people can move the price by several points. Calling that “market consensus” is giving it far too much credit.
The real money is in another market: whether Jensen Huang “announces his resignation or is removed,” with separate outcomes based on the deadline. The platform shows total trading volume of about $17.13 million. Around 4 p.m. Beijing time on November 12:
By November 12 (11:59 p.m. ET that day): about 59.5%
By November 13: about 65.5%
By November 30: about 77%
By December 31: about 81%
This curve tells us more than any odds chart. Most of the probability is riding on “an announcement sometime today, ET,” with only about 20 more points added between today and year-end. My read is that the market thinks the board will either act in the next day or two, or the longer it waits, the more likely it is to do nothing. That’s an inference from the price structure, not a news report.
The rules are an even bigger trap. This market only counts an “explicit” announcement of resignation or removal, and it has to take effect within 18 months. A temporary leave, suspension, administrative leave, “under consideration,” or a conditional statement doesn’t count. Bloomberg says the board is meeting and is also working with external firms to identify potential replacements. But if the final outcome is some compromise like “temporary leave + CFO as acting CEO,” anyone who bought YES still loses everything.
Read the rules before following the news. That matters more than guessing who will take over.
#英伟达 #Polymarket
The succession odds making the rounds today should be for Polymarket’s “Next CEO of NVIDIA” market. It settles on January 1, 2029. The platform shows total trading volume of just over $100,000 for the entire event, with about $22,600 traded on “No Change” (meaning Jensen Huang stays on). When I checked at 4 p.m. today, the price was 18%, not 11%. In a market with only tens of thousands of dollars in volume, one or two people can move the price by several points. Calling that “market consensus” is giving it far too much credit.
The real money is in another market: whether Jensen Huang “announces his resignation or is removed,” with separate outcomes based on the deadline. The platform shows total trading volume of about $17.13 million. Around 4 p.m. Beijing time on November 12:
By November 12 (11:59 p.m. ET that day): about 59.5%
By November 13: about 65.5%
By November 30: about 77%
By December 31: about 81%
This curve tells us more than any odds chart. Most of the probability is riding on “an announcement sometime today, ET,” with only about 20 more points added between today and year-end. My read is that the market thinks the board will either act in the next day or two, or the longer it waits, the more likely it is to do nothing. That’s an inference from the price structure, not a news report.
The rules are an even bigger trap. This market only counts an “explicit” announcement of resignation or removal, and it has to take effect within 18 months. A temporary leave, suspension, administrative leave, “under consideration,” or a conditional statement doesn’t count. Bloomberg says the board is meeting and is also working with external firms to identify potential replacements. But if the final outcome is some compromise like “temporary leave + CFO as acting CEO,” anyone who bought YES still loses everything.
Read the rules before following the news. That matters more than guessing who will take over.
#英伟达 #Polymarket