MSCI removes Strategy from its global indexes after the November 30 close. On Binance, the tokenized stock MSTRB has lost 3.7% since the announcement, while the $BTC has fallen only 1% over the same period.
Here’s how events unfolded:
10/15: MSCI adopts its new rule on “non-operating companies”—companies whose assets look more like a fund’s than a business’s.
11/11, 22:23 UTC: MSCI publishes the final list. Strategy is removed from the MSCI USA, World, and ACWI indexes. Metaplanet is also removed from the MSCI Japan Small Cap (Reuters, The Block).
Overnight: MSTRB falls from $121.50 (the 22:00 UTC open) to a low of $116.55, and trades at $117.03 at 07:00 UTC (Binance API). The $BTC slips from $74,390 to $73,620.
What this means in practice, according to CoinDesk: funds tracking MSCI hold around 13 million shares, or 3.1% of the company (about $1.6 billion). JPMorgan had estimated $2.8 billion in outflows in 2025, but that was based on the initial proposal. An important point: exclusion does not require Strategy to sell its 850,364 BTC.
The real issue, in my view, is the buying machine. The mNAV has already fallen to around 1.08x (from 3.4x at its November 2024 peak). Last week, of the $283.8 million raised, only $81.9 million went to BTC, while $188.3 million went to buying back STRC shares. Less passive demand means the premium risks staying depressed.
What to watch between now and 11/30:
- If MSTR stabilizes despite index-related selling, the event was already priced in, as 10x Research believes;
- If other index providers follow suit, JPMorgan cited outflows of up to $8.8 billion, dealing another blow to the BTC treasury narrative.
Does Strategy still have an impact on the price of BTC, or has this become a story about shareholders?
#Strategy #MSCI #Bitcoin
Here’s how events unfolded:
10/15: MSCI adopts its new rule on “non-operating companies”—companies whose assets look more like a fund’s than a business’s.
11/11, 22:23 UTC: MSCI publishes the final list. Strategy is removed from the MSCI USA, World, and ACWI indexes. Metaplanet is also removed from the MSCI Japan Small Cap (Reuters, The Block).
Overnight: MSTRB falls from $121.50 (the 22:00 UTC open) to a low of $116.55, and trades at $117.03 at 07:00 UTC (Binance API). The $BTC slips from $74,390 to $73,620.
What this means in practice, according to CoinDesk: funds tracking MSCI hold around 13 million shares, or 3.1% of the company (about $1.6 billion). JPMorgan had estimated $2.8 billion in outflows in 2025, but that was based on the initial proposal. An important point: exclusion does not require Strategy to sell its 850,364 BTC.
The real issue, in my view, is the buying machine. The mNAV has already fallen to around 1.08x (from 3.4x at its November 2024 peak). Last week, of the $283.8 million raised, only $81.9 million went to BTC, while $188.3 million went to buying back STRC shares. Less passive demand means the premium risks staying depressed.
What to watch between now and 11/30:
- If MSTR stabilizes despite index-related selling, the event was already priced in, as 10x Research believes;
- If other index providers follow suit, JPMorgan cited outflows of up to $8.8 billion, dealing another blow to the BTC treasury narrative.
Does Strategy still have an impact on the price of BTC, or has this become a story about shareholders?
#Strategy #MSCI #Bitcoin
