$KGEN At 3 p.m., it surged to 0.1075, then a single wick plunged back to 0.096. Is this a bull trap or a shakeout? I’m leaning toward a shakeout.
First, the volume: today’s daily candle has seen 114 million U in trading volume so far. Two weeks ago, it was only one or two million a day. The 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. hourly candles each saw 22.8 million U in volume—retail traders couldn’t generate that kind of activity on their own.
Now, open interest—this is what I’m most certain about: from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m., contract open interest jumped from 73.95 million to 83.10 million, up 12% in one hour. Over that same hour, the percentage of accounts going long plunged from 67.1% to 58.4%. During the spike, a large number of accounts flipped and opened short positions, betting that it had topped out. The funding rate is only +0.0065%, so longs aren’t paying much at all.
When the price pulls back as short positions surge, that kind of setup often fuels the next leg up. The 3 p.m. low of 0.0932 is the line to defend; if it breaks, get out. If it reclaims 0.1075, the next target is the October 24 high of 0.1124.
What do you think that wick was just now—a major player selling off, or shaking people out? Share your reasoning.
#KGEN #诱多还是洗盘 #AltcoinMarket
First, the volume: today’s daily candle has seen 114 million U in trading volume so far. Two weeks ago, it was only one or two million a day. The 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. hourly candles each saw 22.8 million U in volume—retail traders couldn’t generate that kind of activity on their own.
Now, open interest—this is what I’m most certain about: from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m., contract open interest jumped from 73.95 million to 83.10 million, up 12% in one hour. Over that same hour, the percentage of accounts going long plunged from 67.1% to 58.4%. During the spike, a large number of accounts flipped and opened short positions, betting that it had topped out. The funding rate is only +0.0065%, so longs aren’t paying much at all.
When the price pulls back as short positions surge, that kind of setup often fuels the next leg up. The 3 p.m. low of 0.0932 is the line to defend; if it breaks, get out. If it reclaims 0.1075, the next target is the October 24 high of 0.1124.
What do you think that wick was just now—a major player selling off, or shaking people out? Share your reasoning.
#KGEN #诱多还是洗盘 #AltcoinMarket
