$BTC
Something feels off after this drop.
Leverage hasn’t been flushed out.
Today’s CryptoQuant data: the estimated leverage ratio was 0.22–0.24 in mid-October, surged to 0.265 in early November, and is now at 0.249. After such a huge drop, leverage has barely come down. In previous major sell-offs, leverage got thoroughly crushed before recovering. This time it hasn’t been flushed out, and there’s still a lot hanging over the market.
Now look on-chain. On November 10, short-term holders sent around 48,500 BTC to exchanges, worth $3.6 billion. 47,300 BTC were sent at a loss, while only 1,100 were sent at a profit—a loss-to-profit ratio of 27 to 1. On November 3, 50,790 BTC were sent at a loss; on November 11, another 47,025— the third-largest amount since July. Sending coins to exchanges doesn’t mean they’ve been sold, but coins flowing onto exchanges is hardly a good sign.
Miners are selling too. Miner reserves have fallen to around 1.19 million BTC, their lowest level since 2009. Exchange inflows hit a nine-month high, with Binance alone receiving 2,000 BTC in a single day.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator went straight to zero on November 11. Their head of research, Julio Moreno, put it bluntly: if Bitcoin decisively breaks below $73,000 and can’t reclaim it, the downtrend is confirmed.
My trade is still the same; I haven’t changed my stance. Buy the retest at $73,200–$73,800, stop-loss at $71,900, with initial targets at $75,442 and then $76,400. The current price is $73,529, right in the buy zone. Keep a close eye on $73,000. Moreno’s warning stands—if price closes below it, don’t stubbornly hold on.
When leverage hasn’t been flushed out, treat any bounce as a chance to break even, and don’t get carried away with your position size.
Are you selling into this move or holding on for dear life?
#Bitcoin
Something feels off after this drop.
Leverage hasn’t been flushed out.
Today’s CryptoQuant data: the estimated leverage ratio was 0.22–0.24 in mid-October, surged to 0.265 in early November, and is now at 0.249. After such a huge drop, leverage has barely come down. In previous major sell-offs, leverage got thoroughly crushed before recovering. This time it hasn’t been flushed out, and there’s still a lot hanging over the market.
Now look on-chain. On November 10, short-term holders sent around 48,500 BTC to exchanges, worth $3.6 billion. 47,300 BTC were sent at a loss, while only 1,100 were sent at a profit—a loss-to-profit ratio of 27 to 1. On November 3, 50,790 BTC were sent at a loss; on November 11, another 47,025— the third-largest amount since July. Sending coins to exchanges doesn’t mean they’ve been sold, but coins flowing onto exchanges is hardly a good sign.
Miners are selling too. Miner reserves have fallen to around 1.19 million BTC, their lowest level since 2009. Exchange inflows hit a nine-month high, with Binance alone receiving 2,000 BTC in a single day.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator went straight to zero on November 11. Their head of research, Julio Moreno, put it bluntly: if Bitcoin decisively breaks below $73,000 and can’t reclaim it, the downtrend is confirmed.
My trade is still the same; I haven’t changed my stance. Buy the retest at $73,200–$73,800, stop-loss at $71,900, with initial targets at $75,442 and then $76,400. The current price is $73,529, right in the buy zone. Keep a close eye on $73,000. Moreno’s warning stands—if price closes below it, don’t stubbornly hold on.
When leverage hasn’t been flushed out, treat any bounce as a chance to break even, and don’t get carried away with your position size.
Are you selling into this move or holding on for dear life?
#Bitcoin
