FED: 25 or 50 basis points? The next decision could influence Bitcoin.
The next decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected on December 9.
Here are the scenarios reflected in market expectations as of November 11:
→ Current policy rate: 3.75–4.00%.
→ 25-basis-point cut: estimated probability of 86%.
→ 50-basis-point cut: estimated probability of 14%.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Interest rates directly affect the attractiveness of risk-free investments.
Less restrictive monetary policy could benefit risk assets, particularly Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, a more cautious Fed could keep pressure on markets.
My analysis:
A 25-basis-point cut appears to be the clear favorite. But keep in mind: a rate cut does not automatically guarantee a rise in BTC.
The market will also be watching the economic outlook and the Fed’s signals for the coming months.
The real question: has the market already priced in this cut?
That may be what determines Bitcoin’s next move.
Indicative data as of November 11, 2026. Educational content, not investment advice. #
The next decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected on December 9.
Here are the scenarios reflected in market expectations as of November 11:
→ Current policy rate: 3.75–4.00%.
→ 25-basis-point cut: estimated probability of 86%.
→ 50-basis-point cut: estimated probability of 14%.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Interest rates directly affect the attractiveness of risk-free investments.
Less restrictive monetary policy could benefit risk assets, particularly Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, a more cautious Fed could keep pressure on markets.
My analysis:
A 25-basis-point cut appears to be the clear favorite. But keep in mind: a rate cut does not automatically guarantee a rise in BTC.
The market will also be watching the economic outlook and the Fed’s signals for the coming months.
The real question: has the market already priced in this cut?
That may be what determines Bitcoin’s next move.
Indicative data as of November 11, 2026. Educational content, not investment advice. #
