Tomorrow afternoon, $2.78 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire — and both spot prices are still below their max pain points.
Key figures:
• Total expiry on Friday, Nov 13 at 15:00 WIB: around $2.78 billion (Greeks.live, Nov 12) — BTC: around 34,000 contracts worth $2.48 billion; ETH: around 148,000 contracts worth $300 million.
• Max pain: BTC at $76,000, ETH at $2,200 — both above current prices (BTC around $73,647, ETH around $2,050, based on the kline data I just checked).
• Put/call ratios point in opposite directions: BTC 0.52 (calls dominate), ETH 1.55 (puts dominate) — a Deribit-based tracker confirms the same max pain figures.
What that means to me: max pain isn’t a price target — it’s the point at which the most contracts expire worthless, so prices tend to be held near it as expiry approaches, rather than being pulled toward it. The interesting part is the contrast: BTC options buyers still lean toward calls, while ETH buyers lean toward puts — the market is reading these two coins differently ahead of Friday. But one dataset isn’t enough to draw a conclusion: weekly expiries like this are routine; what makes this one worth watching is its size amid an already defensive market.
What I’m watching next: whether BTC holds above $72,691 ahead of tomorrow’s 15:00 WIB expiry, and whether volatility picks up after these contracts expire.
What do you think — is $76,000 max pain more often a magnet or a trap?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#OpsiKripto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH
Key figures:
• Total expiry on Friday, Nov 13 at 15:00 WIB: around $2.78 billion (Greeks.live, Nov 12) — BTC: around 34,000 contracts worth $2.48 billion; ETH: around 148,000 contracts worth $300 million.
• Max pain: BTC at $76,000, ETH at $2,200 — both above current prices (BTC around $73,647, ETH around $2,050, based on the kline data I just checked).
• Put/call ratios point in opposite directions: BTC 0.52 (calls dominate), ETH 1.55 (puts dominate) — a Deribit-based tracker confirms the same max pain figures.
What that means to me: max pain isn’t a price target — it’s the point at which the most contracts expire worthless, so prices tend to be held near it as expiry approaches, rather than being pulled toward it. The interesting part is the contrast: BTC options buyers still lean toward calls, while ETH buyers lean toward puts — the market is reading these two coins differently ahead of Friday. But one dataset isn’t enough to draw a conclusion: weekly expiries like this are routine; what makes this one worth watching is its size amid an already defensive market.
What I’m watching next: whether BTC holds above $72,691 ahead of tomorrow’s 15:00 WIB expiry, and whether volatility picks up after these contracts expire.
What do you think — is $76,000 max pain more often a magnet or a trap?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#OpsiKripto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH