$4,000 held for three days, but it still broke.
Spot gold during the Asian session $XAU briefly touched $3,968 and is now around $3,980, down for a third straight day. The catalyst was Tuesday’s CPI: October rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% expected, while core CPI rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Waller had said that if core inflation hit 0.3%, a 50-basis-point hike in December should be considered. The market took that to heart: the odds of a 25-basis-point hike are around 90%, while the odds of 50 basis points rose from 0 to about 13%. The dollar index is at 102.9, its highest since April 2025.
The chart is clear: on November 10, a big bearish candle plunged from 4,114 to 4,030; yesterday, gold fell another 1.2% to close at 4,000.5.
Support: $3,969
Resistance: $4,008
Hold above $3,969 → rebound target: $4,008
Break below $3,969 → next stop: $3,920
Regain $4,008 → short covering
My short-term view is bearish, but I wouldn’t chase the drop. I’ll admit I’m wrong if it closes back above $4,008. Initial jobless claims are due tonight at 21:30, followed by U.S. October PPI tomorrow night at 21:30 (forecast: +0.4%). If PPI comes in hotter than expected, bets on a 50-basis-point hike will rise further; if PPI is soft, $3,969 will be the floor. Do you think gold can get back to $4,000 before year-end, or is it headed for $3,900?
⚠️Just my personal ramblings, not investment advice.
#黃金 #美聯儲 #CPI
Spot gold during the Asian session $XAU briefly touched $3,968 and is now around $3,980, down for a third straight day. The catalyst was Tuesday’s CPI: October rose 0.4% month over month, above the 0.3% expected, while core CPI rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Waller had said that if core inflation hit 0.3%, a 50-basis-point hike in December should be considered. The market took that to heart: the odds of a 25-basis-point hike are around 90%, while the odds of 50 basis points rose from 0 to about 13%. The dollar index is at 102.9, its highest since April 2025.
The chart is clear: on November 10, a big bearish candle plunged from 4,114 to 4,030; yesterday, gold fell another 1.2% to close at 4,000.5.
Support: $3,969
Resistance: $4,008
Hold above $3,969 → rebound target: $4,008
Break below $3,969 → next stop: $3,920
Regain $4,008 → short covering
My short-term view is bearish, but I wouldn’t chase the drop. I’ll admit I’m wrong if it closes back above $4,008. Initial jobless claims are due tonight at 21:30, followed by U.S. October PPI tomorrow night at 21:30 (forecast: +0.4%). If PPI comes in hotter than expected, bets on a 50-basis-point hike will rise further; if PPI is soft, $3,969 will be the floor. Do you think gold can get back to $4,000 before year-end, or is it headed for $3,900?
⚠️Just my personal ramblings, not investment advice.
#黃金 #美聯儲 #CPI
