[In Depth] Stablecoins shed $14.2 billion in 30 days, yet whales are quietly buying: who’s right this time?
There’s only one word to describe the recent crypto market: bleeding. Bitcoin fell below $74,000, hitting a three-month low; Ethereum dropped below $2,100. But on-chain data shows an intriguing split signal—retail investors are running, while whales are buying the dip.
1. Where exactly is the money going?
Let’s start with three hard data points:
1. Stablecoins are bleeding heavily. Glassnode’s weekly report on November 11 showed that, in the 30 days through November 9, the total supply of major USD stablecoins fell by $14.2 billion, its fastest contraction since June 2022 (Source: Glassnode Weekly Report). Stablecoins are the market’s ammunition; a shrinking arsenal means the flow of new buying power is drying up.
2. ETFs continue to see outflows. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion from November 2 to 6—their largest weekly outflow since late June. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about $1.21 billion of that. Net inflows for the year have turned into net outflows of about $900 million. 2026 could well become the first year of net outflows since spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched.
3. Actual demand has turned negative. CryptoQuant’s measure of apparent Bitcoin demand fell by 284,000 BTC over 30 days, its fastest contraction since March 2025. Its Bull Score Index dropped from 90 to 20, entering “extreme bear market” territory (Source: CryptoQuant via Cointelegraph).
2. Why is the market falling? Macro factors are the main cause
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, above expectations of 0.3%. CME FedWatch showed traders pricing in nearly an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December (Source: Sina Finance, citing CME data). A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields have directly increased the cost of holding risk assets. The November 5 “4-Sigma day” in U.S. stocks (the Nasdaq fell 5.52% in a single day) dragged Bitcoin down with it. That day, $1.254 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, affecting 238,600 traders (Source: CoinGlass).
3. But what are the whales doing?
The same Glassnode report notes that two “mid-sized whale” cohorts holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulating. The share of short-term holders in profit fell from nearly 100% in September to about 35%, while their average cost basis is around $75,600. The current price is below that level, so as retail investors capitulate at a loss, large holders are buying on the dip.
Historically, CryptoQuant notes that similar demand-contraction conditions have appeared several times near local bottoms. It also flags $73,200 as key support; a break below that level could still trigger another round of deleveraging.
4. My view
This is a classic “one last dip” standoff: it’s a fact that three sources of funding—stablecoins, ETFs, and domestic buying—are all bleeding, and it’s also a fact that leveraged futures longs have been effectively flushed out. Whales aren’t saints; they’re buying “the coins others are forced to sell.” My advice for ordinary investors:
1. Don’t go all-in trying to catch the bottom in the $73,000–$76,000 zone, where bulls and bears are divided. Wait for ETF outflow data to turn positive consistently before confirming the trend;
2. Watch two levels: the short-term holder cost basis of $75,600 (reclaiming it = structural recovery) and $73,200 support (a break below = defend);
3. For leveraged traders, the top priority right now isn’t making money—it’s staying alive.
Markets always bottom amid despair, but a bottom takes time to confirm. Let the bullets fly a little longer.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#深度 #分析 #比特币 #DeFi
There’s only one word to describe the recent crypto market: bleeding. Bitcoin fell below $74,000, hitting a three-month low; Ethereum dropped below $2,100. But on-chain data shows an intriguing split signal—retail investors are running, while whales are buying the dip.
1. Where exactly is the money going?
Let’s start with three hard data points:
1. Stablecoins are bleeding heavily. Glassnode’s weekly report on November 11 showed that, in the 30 days through November 9, the total supply of major USD stablecoins fell by $14.2 billion, its fastest contraction since June 2022 (Source: Glassnode Weekly Report). Stablecoins are the market’s ammunition; a shrinking arsenal means the flow of new buying power is drying up.
2. ETFs continue to see outflows. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion from November 2 to 6—their largest weekly outflow since late June. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for about $1.21 billion of that. Net inflows for the year have turned into net outflows of about $900 million. 2026 could well become the first year of net outflows since spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched.
3. Actual demand has turned negative. CryptoQuant’s measure of apparent Bitcoin demand fell by 284,000 BTC over 30 days, its fastest contraction since March 2025. Its Bull Score Index dropped from 90 to 20, entering “extreme bear market” territory (Source: CryptoQuant via Cointelegraph).
2. Why is the market falling? Macro factors are the main cause
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month in October, above expectations of 0.3%. CME FedWatch showed traders pricing in nearly an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December (Source: Sina Finance, citing CME data). A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields have directly increased the cost of holding risk assets. The November 5 “4-Sigma day” in U.S. stocks (the Nasdaq fell 5.52% in a single day) dragged Bitcoin down with it. That day, $1.254 billion in positions were liquidated across the market, affecting 238,600 traders (Source: CoinGlass).
3. But what are the whales doing?
The same Glassnode report notes that two “mid-sized whale” cohorts holding 100 to 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulating. The share of short-term holders in profit fell from nearly 100% in September to about 35%, while their average cost basis is around $75,600. The current price is below that level, so as retail investors capitulate at a loss, large holders are buying on the dip.
Historically, CryptoQuant notes that similar demand-contraction conditions have appeared several times near local bottoms. It also flags $73,200 as key support; a break below that level could still trigger another round of deleveraging.
4. My view
This is a classic “one last dip” standoff: it’s a fact that three sources of funding—stablecoins, ETFs, and domestic buying—are all bleeding, and it’s also a fact that leveraged futures longs have been effectively flushed out. Whales aren’t saints; they’re buying “the coins others are forced to sell.” My advice for ordinary investors:
1. Don’t go all-in trying to catch the bottom in the $73,000–$76,000 zone, where bulls and bears are divided. Wait for ETF outflow data to turn positive consistently before confirming the trend;
2. Watch two levels: the short-term holder cost basis of $75,600 (reclaiming it = structural recovery) and $73,200 support (a break below = defend);
3. For leveraged traders, the top priority right now isn’t making money—it’s staying alive.
Markets always bottom amid despair, but a bottom takes time to confirm. Let the bullets fly a little longer.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#深度 #分析 #比特币 #DeFi