$SPCX at 139.68 after a 4.02% decline, and the latest rebound failed at 146–157. That failure is what matters to me, not the percentage.

The previous rebound rose 22% and reached the same zone, then lost momentum. Repeated rejection at one level means sellers are waiting there—not that the market hasn’t tried.

The upcoming catalysts are clear: Flight 15 on November 13, and Musk’s visit to China on November 18. But when a catalyst is already known, the price usually moves before it, not after. That makes it more likely that pressure will continue after both events rather than stop.

Support is at 134–138. A break below 134 could accelerate the liquidation of crowded long positions, which is more dangerous than the decline itself.

I expect pressure to continue toward 134, because pre-announced catalysts create less new demand and more of an opportunity to exit. If the price closes above 146 during the November 13 session itself, I’ll consider that the market has bet on the catalyst.

This is analysis, not advice.

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