U.S. stocks have bounced back, so why is $BTC still stuck at 73,000?
The S&P 500 rose 1.31% yesterday, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Dow also closed higher. What about Bitcoin? 73,800—barely moved.
This isn't just a one-day thing. After October's hotter-than-expected CPI, Bitcoin slid nearly 3% from its high, while U.S. stocks quickly steadied. Blockhead put it bluntly today: Bitcoin's rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has turned positive for the first time since 2015—it tracks the market more closely than anything on the way down, but hasn't kept up at all on the way up.
The real evidence is that money is flowing out. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of 516 million in October, then another 201 million in a single day on November 9, marking four straight days of outflows. Stablecoin supply has shrunk by 14.2 billion over the past 30 days, the biggest drop since 2022.
The ground beneath it isn't solid either. The short-term holder cost basis is 75,600, and the price has already fallen below it. The 200-day moving average at 73,100 is right below. If the weekly close can't get back above 70,000, the next support level is 68,000, followed by a vacuum zone between 60,000 and 64,000.
So here's the question: If it isn't following the U.S. stock rebound, is it a bargain ready to catch up—or has its beta broken, making it time to get out first?
A: Decoupling means it's bottomed. Buy at 73,800 with your eyes closed and bet on it catching up with the Nasdaq
B: Following the market down but not up means weakness. If it breaks 70,000, get out first; see what happens at 68,000
$BTC $ETH
#比特币 #美股 #decoupling
The S&P 500 rose 1.31% yesterday, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Dow also closed higher. What about Bitcoin? 73,800—barely moved.
This isn't just a one-day thing. After October's hotter-than-expected CPI, Bitcoin slid nearly 3% from its high, while U.S. stocks quickly steadied. Blockhead put it bluntly today: Bitcoin's rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has turned positive for the first time since 2015—it tracks the market more closely than anything on the way down, but hasn't kept up at all on the way up.
The real evidence is that money is flowing out. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of 516 million in October, then another 201 million in a single day on November 9, marking four straight days of outflows. Stablecoin supply has shrunk by 14.2 billion over the past 30 days, the biggest drop since 2022.
The ground beneath it isn't solid either. The short-term holder cost basis is 75,600, and the price has already fallen below it. The 200-day moving average at 73,100 is right below. If the weekly close can't get back above 70,000, the next support level is 68,000, followed by a vacuum zone between 60,000 and 64,000.
So here's the question: If it isn't following the U.S. stock rebound, is it a bargain ready to catch up—or has its beta broken, making it time to get out first?
A: Decoupling means it's bottomed. Buy at 73,800 with your eyes closed and bet on it catching up with the Nasdaq
B: Following the market down but not up means weakness. If it breaks 70,000, get out first; see what happens at 68,000
$BTC $ETH
#比特币 #美股 #decoupling