I. Today's View

Bitcoin is currently priced at $73,811, up slightly by 0.70% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum is at $2,056.56, up 0.25%; both rebounds are weak. Compared with their ranges over the past week, Bitcoin is only about 1.5% above its seven-day low of $72,727, while Ethereum is just around 2.5% above its low of $2,006. Both are effectively hovering near the bottom of their ranges. In other words, after falling over the past few days, prices have temporarily stopped dropping rapidly, but there has been no strong rebound either; it looks more like a brief breather at low levels.

The most immediate pressure behind this situation is the renewed rise in expectations for Fed rate hikes. U.S. inflation data for October came in above expectations for the third consecutive month, Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and bets on a December rate hike rose rapidly. CME tools show the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in December has approached 60%. When rate hike expectations strengthen, the dollar tends to rise. The U.S. Dollar Index has reached its highest level since April 2025, creating headwinds for all dollar-denominated assets. Traditional investors view crypto assets as high-beta investments, meaning they tend to react more sharply to macro sentiment. Even a slight tightening in rate expectations gives institutions an incentive to reduce their crypto exposure first, since crypto is volatile and often among the first assets sold when liquidity comes under pressure. We are currently seeing spot ETFs record persistent net outflows over the past seven days, while some institutions are also reducing their positions, clear signs of this pullback in risk appetite.

However, sentiment across the market is not uniformly pessimistic. Leverage data is actually cooling: open interest fell slightly by 0.78% over 24 hours, while liquidations totaled $282 million, down sharply by 61.43% from the previous day. This suggests that positions forcibly liquidated during the sharp drop have largely been cleared out and panic selling has subsided. Funding rates remain positive, but are not particularly high, with no signs of overheated long positions. The Fear & Greed Index is at 29. Some large on-chain addresses have recently added to their holdings, creating a contrast with ETF outflows. The two camps in the community remain divided, and there is no consensus on direction for now. Tonight's U.S. initial jobless claims data at 21:30, along with subsequent remarks from Fed officials, will provide a window into potential short-term shifts in sentiment.

II. Today's News

1. Fed rate hike expectations rise; U.S. Dollar Index reaches its highest level since April 2025

U.S. inflation in October came in above expectations for the third consecutive month. Combined with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, this has led markets to price in the possibility of another rate hike in December. Goldman Sachs even forecasts rate hikes in both December and March next year. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.63% to 102.85, its highest level since April 2025, while the dollar approached the 160 mark against the yen. Higher rate expectations make holding dollars more attractive, and a stronger dollar is generally unfavorable for crypto assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum do not pay interest, so when holding dollars offers a higher risk-free return, some capital may leave the crypto market. This dynamic directly explains today's weak rebound in the crypto market and subdued risk appetite. Going forward, investors should watch for further comments from Fed officials and upcoming employment data. If rate hike expectations continue to strengthen, the crypto market may face further pressure.

2. Arkham tracks funds stolen from Bitget; 847.26 BTC flow into mixing transactions

On-chain analytics platform Arkham tracked about $63 million in stolen funds linked to the Bitget hack. Of these, 847.26 Bitcoin have already flowed into crypto-mixing transactions, while another 959.29 Bitcoin are held in wallet addresses flagged by the platform. Mixing is a common money-laundering method used by hackers: by combining many people's transactions, it makes the flow of funds difficult to trace. The continued occurrence of such security incidents can undermine ordinary users' trust in centralized exchanges and prompt some cautious investors to temporarily step aside. In addition, an ARK Invest report released the same day noted that the crypto industry has lost a cumulative $26.9 billion to hacks since 2017, equivalent to 57% of its on-chain revenue. Security has become one of the main bottlenecks to the industry's growth. Although these incidents do not directly change Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics, they can hurt market sentiment, especially in an environment where risk appetite is already very low, making negative reactions more likely to intensify.

3. ARK Invest: Crypto industry has lost $26.9 billion to hacks since 2017, equivalent to 57% of on-chain revenue

The head of digital asset research at ARK Invest said that since 2017, the crypto industry has lost a cumulative total of about $26.9 billion to hacks, while total on-chain revenue over the same period was about $47 billion. In other words, for every $1 of on-chain revenue generated by the industry, about $0.57 was stolen by hackers. Binance alone suffered a single theft totaling as much as $6.36 billion, exceeding the entire crypto industry's on-chain revenue so far in 2026. These figures make concrete how security risks erode the industry's economic value. For institutional investors, security vulnerabilities mean not only asset losses but also potential legal and compliance risks, making them more cautious when evaluating crypto assets' portfolio value. However, precisely because security concerns are so prominent, compliant custodians and regulated exchanges may have more opportunities to grow, as illustrated by the following regulatory development.

4. tZERO approved by CFTC to operate a regulated derivatives exchange

Financial market infrastructure provider tZERO announced that its wholly owned subsidiary has been approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to register as a designated contract market, allowing it to operate a regulated derivatives exchange. Its clearing organization had previously also received approval. This means traditional financial infrastructure is accelerating its entry into the crypto derivatives sector, providing institutions with compliant trading and clearing channels. Such regulatory approvals are generally seen as a sign of the industry's maturation. Although they do not directly affect prices in the short term, in the longer term they may help attract more traditional capital and deepen the market. Of course, amid an overall pullback in risk appetite, it will take time for this positive news to bear fruit, and for now the market's reaction to such developments has been fairly subdued.

III. Crypto Calendar

Today's Events

• 21:30: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims and four-week average — these figures reflect the latest state of the U.S. labor market. If claims come in below expectations, they could strengthen the Fed's case for raising rates and further weigh on crypto market sentiment.

• 08:00: peaq (PEAQ) will unlock about 82.21 million tokens, worth approximately $2.4 million — a token unlock increases the supply available to trade in the market. If demand does not keep pace, it usually creates short-term selling pressure, but $2.4 million is relatively small, so the impact on the overall market should be limited.

Upcoming Events

• November 13: Kaia public delegated staking users must manually migrate to a new contract; detailed instructions will be published today — the staking migration may affect users' asset operations and rewards, but its impact is limited to the Kaia ecosystem.

• November 14, 11:00: YZY (YZY) will unlock about 29.17 million tokens, worth approximately $8.4 million — this is also a release of supply by the project team, and it is worth watching whether market demand will be sufficient to absorb it.

• November 15, 08:00: Starknet (STRK) will unlock about 127 million tokens, worth approximately $5 million — the increase in circulating supply after the unlock may put some pressure on STRK's price, but the amount is not large; watch how well the market absorbs it on-chain.

IV. Sentiment Monitoring

Community discussion is focused on whether short-term selling pressure is nearing an end. One camp argues that Bitcoin has held around $74,000 despite consecutive ETF outflows and higher-than-expected U.S. inflation, indicating solid support below and suggesting that most of the short-term selling pressure may have already been absorbed. The other camp worries that this is merely a pause before further declines, since institutional funds are still flowing out and buying by on-chain whales is not enough to reverse the trend. The disagreement is reflected directly in views on the direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum, with discussions featuring both bearish technical analysis and neutral observations of on-chain holdings.

There is broad concern about a pullback in risk appetite across macro markets, with many believing that crypto assets, as high-beta investments, will be among the first exposures cut when institutional liquidity contracts. At the same time, Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. tech stocks is being reassessed, with some arguing that Bitcoin is merely a high-volatility extension of the Nasdaq. Strategy's removal from the MSCI USA Index has further reinforced this concern. Overall sentiment is characterized by “division” rather than one-sided panic: investors are fearful, but there is no forced selling, and many are waiting for tonight's employment data and subsequent policy signals to confirm the direction. In this indecisive environment, the market is more susceptible to unexpected news, and confirmation in either direction could trigger rapid short-term volatility.

This article is compiled from the day's market data, important news, and sentiment monitoring, and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice.