A sleeping whale has suddenly awakened after 4 years! It just dumped 1,000 BTC into Binance in one go—is it getting ready to run?
On November 12, on-chain monitoring detected a whale that had been dormant for about 4 years. Eight hours ago, it transferred 1,000 Bitcoin to Binance, worth about $73.78 million at the time, or roughly $73,800 per coin.
Why is this worth paying more attention to than those big headlines? Because 4 years without moving means these coins have been sitting deep in cold storage! When an address like this suddenly becomes active, there are usually only three possibilities: it’s about to sell, it’s using the coins as collateral or rebalancing its portfolio, or it’s changing custodians. Those three scenarios mean very different things, but the market will initially price in only the worst one.
Here are the three numbers: 1,000 coins, $73.78 million, and 4 years. 1,000 coins isn’t much relative to the depth of a major exchange, and $73.78 million is just a fraction of a day’s trading volume. What really stands out is the 4 years! It means that some of the people least expected to move have finally done so.
On one hand, MSCI has just kicked Strategy out of its U.S. indexes, effective after the close on November 30, meaning passive funds will have to sell before then. With both events happening at once, sentiment is getting hit from both sides. But then again, long-term holders transferring coins to an exchange doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll dump them that same day. Often, they’ll just leave them there and wait for the right price.
So here’s my take: this news alone doesn’t determine the direction of the market, but it will make an already fragile market even more fragile. At $BTC , sell orders related to the index removal are hanging overhead, while the cost basis of coins held for 4 years is supporting the market below.
Trading plan: Hold your spot positions and wait until after the November 30 event! Don’t see one transfer and immediately follow it by shorting!
My short-term trading bias is still toward shorting. I’m expecting a 300% futures profit play tonight, and I’ll share it in Fish’s chatroom! Come join if you want to follow along!
#Zcash自9月以来首次跌破1000美元 #Strategy和Metaplanet遭MSCI指数剔除
On November 12, on-chain monitoring detected a whale that had been dormant for about 4 years. Eight hours ago, it transferred 1,000 Bitcoin to Binance, worth about $73.78 million at the time, or roughly $73,800 per coin.
Why is this worth paying more attention to than those big headlines? Because 4 years without moving means these coins have been sitting deep in cold storage! When an address like this suddenly becomes active, there are usually only three possibilities: it’s about to sell, it’s using the coins as collateral or rebalancing its portfolio, or it’s changing custodians. Those three scenarios mean very different things, but the market will initially price in only the worst one.
Here are the three numbers: 1,000 coins, $73.78 million, and 4 years. 1,000 coins isn’t much relative to the depth of a major exchange, and $73.78 million is just a fraction of a day’s trading volume. What really stands out is the 4 years! It means that some of the people least expected to move have finally done so.
On one hand, MSCI has just kicked Strategy out of its U.S. indexes, effective after the close on November 30, meaning passive funds will have to sell before then. With both events happening at once, sentiment is getting hit from both sides. But then again, long-term holders transferring coins to an exchange doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll dump them that same day. Often, they’ll just leave them there and wait for the right price.
So here’s my take: this news alone doesn’t determine the direction of the market, but it will make an already fragile market even more fragile. At $BTC , sell orders related to the index removal are hanging overhead, while the cost basis of coins held for 4 years is supporting the market below.
Trading plan: Hold your spot positions and wait until after the November 30 event! Don’t see one transfer and immediately follow it by shorting!
My short-term trading bias is still toward shorting. I’m expecting a 300% futures profit play tonight, and I’ll share it in Fish’s chatroom! Come join if you want to follow along!
#Zcash自9月以来首次跌破1000美元 #Strategy和Metaplanet遭MSCI指数剔除
