【Daily Macro Lesson】11/12
How can you tell whether we're in a bull or bear market?

Many people rely on gut feeling to judge the market, and end up getting it wrong.

I use three objective indicators:

1. 200-week moving average
BTC price above the 200-week moving average = bullish market structure
Below the 200-week moving average = bearish market structure

2. Breakout above the previous high
A decisive breakout above the previous cycle high with rising volume = bull market confirmed
Failure to break above the previous high + declining volume = bearish signal

3. Number of active on-chain addresses
Sustained growth = genuine demand is expanding
Sustained decline = the market is cooling

When all three indicators point in the same direction, the judgment is reliable.
When they diverge, wait—don't gamble.

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Do you think we're in a bull or bear market right now? Share your reasoning in the comments